A code green winter weather advisory remains in effect for Tuesday-Wednesday Dec 20-21, especially for NW NJ and the Poconos, looks like mainly rain for most but it wont take much for things to become more wintry, and being it’s still 5-6 days out and things can change, im leaving the winter weather advisory in effect. The pattern is changing towards a more wintry and cold one but its just taking a REALLY LONG AND ANNOYING/ IRRITATING time FOR US SNOW LOVERS.
For today, we are ahead of a cold front, so clouds will increase through the day and a SW wind will also increase, and the chance of showers comes in late this afternoon with highs 50-55, this will only be a few scattered showers and not a big deal at all
Tonight the showers will be in and out, the cold front will move off the coast and there will be a rapidly increasing NW wind as the next cold shot starts to come in as there is a strong polar shot behind this cold front, lows 38-42. We are basically looking at a 24 hr warm up here
Tomorrow will be sunny but and windy, still not too chilly though with highs in the upper 40s.
tomorrow night,the winds will subside and the cold air will be established and lows 25-30 are expected
Saturday highs 37-41 are expected with again sunny skies maybe some clouds as an area of weak low pressure slides well south of us, can’t rule out a flurry over SE NJ lows 19-26
Sunday, a little clipper will come SE from the Great Lakes, and there will be a chance for snow showers and flurries, not a big deal, just to remind us that it is almost winter highs 35-40 and lows 19-26 degrees and upper 2os over urban areas
Monday high pressure will still be in control, with highs similar perhaps ever so slightly warmer with highs in the lower 40s lows 23-30
Tuesday and especially Wednesday things become a bit more interesting.
There are 2 jet streams, one is called the Sun tropical jet stream which basically comes in from the tropical pacific and through the southern US, this is the jet stream that brings those moisture loaded systems (like the one we had the last week with 2.5 inches of rain)
Then there is the polar jet stream which starts in the Polar regions and during the winter it gets pushed south, usually only weak and fast-moving systems ride along this jet. But when these 2 jets phase, that’s when things get real interesting
Next week, a disturbance will ride the sub tropical jet, and due to the slight SE ridge, the sub tropical jet rides up the east coast. so this disturbance will track ENE towards the region from the Southern Plains.
Now if the 2 jet streams stay separate , which is highly possible at this time , this is just a moderate rain storm because all the cold air is north of the Polar Jet stream so if the Polar jet is north, there will be no cold air to work with and instead the warm air with the Sub tropical jet takes hold and we just get rain, this is what im leanign towards right now
If these 2 phase which is also possible, we will have plenty of cold air to work with and we would see a wintry threat.
Basically, my early call is that there will be a brief period of snow at the start of the system then transitions to rain for the core of it system then perhaps turns to snow on the back side. The Poconos could see a more significant snow or even ice event out of this, but I don’t expect a complete phase of these Jet streams, the teleconnections, while more favorable than last week , still are not favorable for a complete phase of the jet streams and an all out winter storm.
So I expect mainly rain for most of the area, we are still in this slow pattern step down which will not let us go from warm and wet straight to white and cold, there will most likely be a few transition storms in between (next week) which could bring a wintry and slushy mess for some. Another storm around the Christmas time period is possible, again slightly more favorable than the one that will Happen Wednesday but still not completely favorable for an all out winter storm. Again being its 6 days away and if everything falls into place, we could see a snow event, but lately, things just don’t want to fall into place like they have the last 2 winters and im leaning on the warmer side of things for now
The stratosphere is starting to warm, but it’s still cold and there’s no blocking still, so theres nothing to hold and lock in the cold airwhen these storms come along . There looks to be a significant warming event of the stratosphere next week leading up to Christmas that may lead to favorable NAO and AO blocking after Christmas but for now I just can’t see us getting any type of significant winter storm besides possibly the Poconos
If you want a real snowstorm , you will probably have wait another 2 weeks or so, which is actually quite typical and average, we on average do not see much snow in December. And the October snow storm still has us well above normal for snowfall so far.
Patience is a virtue snow lovers (my patience is just about to run out lol) I think we have waited long enough, by anyway our time will come ,and that time while not now, is not too far away.
noreasterof93
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