In today’s post I am going to focus mainly on the major storm that is likely to effect the East Coast early next week in the Southeast Coast then Mid-late week for the Northeastern states. This could be a very serious situation for the Northeastern States that have been soaked by 3 feet of rain since August 1st and impacted hard by Hurricane Irene
But before that just a quick short and sweet summary for the next 5 days :
Today: Sunny with A breezy NW wind 15-25 mph Highs 67-71
Tonight – Clear and cold with breezy NW wind 10-15 mph , chilly with Lows 40-44
Thursday – Sunny with a NW wind 5-15 mph High 64-67
Thursday Night – Very cold and clear with lows 37-40
Friday – Sunny, West wind 5-10 mph High 67-70 / Lows 44-48
Saturday – Sunny and mild with a WSW wind at 5-10 mph highs 72-75/ Lows 46-49
Sunday – Sunny and very mild with a WSW wind 5-10 mph Highs 75-78 above normal/ Lows below normal 50-55
Columbus Day – Sunny and Mild with a west wind turning east later in the day Highs above average 75-77/ Lows below normal at 50-55
Now onto the “good stuff”
A storm is forecast to form off of the Florida coast starting this weekend. It may strengthen into a tropical storm before slowly coming up the coast. However the waters are chilly up here now with water temps 60-65 degrees , tropical systems maintain at 75-80 degree waters. So as this storm creeps up the coast it will become a “cold cored system” or a hybrid storm which brings the same impacts as the tropical storm would just more widespread and more inland.
The exact track is not certain yet but based on the pattern, there is basically no way this can miss us. Theres blocking in the Atlantic so it can’t go “out to sea ” and there will be a ridge just west of us in the Ohio Valley so it can’t go west either , that leaves it coming north straight at us. It should track somewhere between the Appalachians and the NJ coast.
The main impacts as of now would be very heavy rainfall , 40-50 mph winds. Keep in mind this will be very slow mover so it could last 24 + hours. Several inches of rain 3+ inches seems very likely and if indeed it does become cold cored anyone on the NW side of the low pressure system could see snowfall. The main impact of this storm should be felt Wednesday into Thursday. There would be severe flooding and a lot of wind and tree damage as the ground is saturated and it wont take much to uproot trees
There is still a while to watch this and things can change but this is how me and several meteorologists see it.
This specific model shows a hurricane like storm coming up the coast , very wound up this would be the worst case scenario this would be very similar to Irene but slower moving.
Above would be the weakest solution with 2.5-4 inches of rain and 20-40 mph winds
If you take a solution in the middle of those it would add up to 3.5-6 inches of rainfall and 40-50 mph winds.
Theres still plenty of time and I will keep you updated. Until then enjoy the nice fall like weather the next 5-6 days !!!