Well its Friday and we have a very nice 3 day weekend to look forward to!!!
Today we woke up to temps 35-40 degrees and some frost in many areas but we are warming into the 50s and 60s now. We will get to 65-68 today before another chilly night in the 40-45 degree range.
Tomorrow starts a very brief but nice warm up.
Saturday look for highs 72-76 degrees under sunny skies , a nice breeze and no humidity. This is e slightly above normal nothing really unusual though. A chilly night with lows 46-50 degrees
Sunday the warm up is in full swing with highs 78-83 degrees as the Canadian high goes offshore and a SW wind develops to drive in the warm air. This is quite warm for this time of the year however , there will once again be a little breeze and no humidity what so ever so even if it goes up to 83 degrees it will feel more like the mid to upper 70s.This set up DOES NOT support highs anything above 82 or 83 degrees , there are forecasts calling for 86-88 degrees that will not happen. This would be the best day if you want to take one more trip to the beach until next Spring. Even with this warm up we will continue with the chilly nights and mornings as skies will be clear and all the daytime heating will be able to quickly escape as soon as the sun sets , lows are expected to range from 45-52 for Sunday night
Monday is still warm but we start cooling down already into the mid 70s, as our storm gets going to the south and high pressure develops over Maine it will create an Easterly wind off the ocean and start driving in a cool , marine airmass starting Monday.
By Tuesday the storm I have been talking about will be creeping up the coast ever so slowly , with an increase in clouds throughout the day. Highs back down to the upper 60s and lows in the 40s. By Tuesday night we should be overcast and a stiff wind off the Atlantic should be developing.
The track of this storm is being ironed out now and is expected to track from the East Coast of Florida due north and track either right over NJ or just east.
This is the rainfall forecast through Weds early morning , by Weds afternoon the fist bands of rain should be moving through the area
There is areas of 10-12 inch rainfall creeping up the coast!! This storm is tropical in nature like the other 4 or 5 storms have had the last 2 months. This means there will be abundant moisture and tropical downpours. By Weds night the rain should become steady and heavy and last through the day on Thursday potentially into Friday morning.
We shouldnt get the 10-12 inch amounts here though because the storm is just gonna spin and stall down off the SE coast giving them several days of relentless rainfall , the storm will not stall off the NJ coast it will keep moving along although slowly.
So total rainfall looks to be 2-4 inches and winds will be screaming out of the East at 25-35 mph as this storm will be strong and really wound up. The impacts of this storm are bound to change as we iron out exactly where the storm will track and exactly how strong and slow-moving it will be
Basically what I do know is Wednesday will be ugly and Thursday will be a down right washout with a wind-blown heavy rain
I should note that the GFS model that had this storm missing us now has it hitting us again. Theres still a debate on whether it will develop east or west of Florida. If the Low tracks over us (that would be if it develops west of Florida) then we would see the 2-4 inches but if it develops east of Florida and tracks just east of us we could see much more than that , these are details I will have to iron out over the weekend
Either way, after this storm we will enter a cold pattern by next weekend as a trough drops down the east coast. The MJO as I stated yesterday will move into Phase 8 which is prime for the east coast to be stormy and chilly.This looks like a more sustained and long cold pattern than we just had. While I can’t rule out a warmer day here and there it certainly will be an overall cold pattern for the rest of October and into November.
Signals point to a VERY COLD November as the pattern will be prime for arctic air to drive down the east coast and with a very cold November comes the chances for early snows but more on the month of November once we get to the end of October .