As we are getting closer to the storm the models are finally showing the true potential of this nor’easter that I’ve been harping on and on about the last few days.
Before todays model runs, they all had more of a 1-2 inch event but now they are picking up on the strength and slow speed and dumping 3-5 inches on us which has been my thinking and now it looks like my thinking will come true.
This latest model has 3-4 inches over most of NJ and PA and winds of 25-40 mph , yesterday and the last few runs of this model had 1-2 inches of rain and 15-25 mph winds. I knew it was under estimating it because Florida is seeing tropical storm conditions and the storm is expected to strengthen while coming up the coast and phasing with the second storm coming from the west. Right now it is a tropical storm hitting Florida but once it merges with the other storm it will become cold cored and a nor’easter , same impacts just not the warm and humid conditions a tropical storm would bring
And based on this animation this storm isn’t over yet with already 3-4 inches so im thinking if it was extended through the whole storm it would be more of a 4-5 inch rainstorm
The timing has not changed , cloudy Weds with increasing wind then rain spreads in from the Atlantic Weds night into Thursday and lasts through Friday afternoon then a break then a cold front comes through late Friday afternoon with more rain
I think at the end of this whole storm system most areas will see 3.5-4.5 inches some locally 5 inch amounts and with strong winds up to 45 mph I would expect at least some power outages and tree damage.