Well its starting off as a nice day with temps around 70 and peeks of sun but this is about to change
You see all the oranges and reds moving NNW into NJ? That is the overcast cloud deck moving in off the Atlantic from our developing Nor’easter.
The first band of rain is entering the Delmarva slowly coming north and should lead to a fairly wet morning rush hour. Also winds are slowly increasing due to the storm coming north and should be 10-20 mph by late tonight then 15-25 mph tomorrow out of the NE with guts to 30 as well as showers turning to a steady moderate to heavy rain by late morning to early afternoon.
Now there’s going to be 2 main rounds of rainfall, the first is the nor’easter, that’s late tonight through Thursday morning. This will be a band of moderate to heavy rain from the warm/occluded front coming north from the low pressure which will still be in the Carolinas tomorrow
Looks like there will be a break Thursday as the best lifting moves north as well as the warm front with cloudy skies maybe a peek of sun . Some forecasts call for completely dry forecast on Thursday, I can’t see that happening with all this moisture coming up the coast but the rain will be very scattered on Thursday but where it does rain on Thursday it will pour
Second round comes Friday morning through Friday night. This will be the actual low pressure from the nor’easter coming through as well as a cold front. Theres a chance for severe thunderstorms with this round but the main issue will be very heavy rain and very windy conditions Friday afternoon
1st round looks to bring 1.5-2.5 inches
2nd round looks to bring 0.75-1. inch
Through the period of Weds- Friday I’m looking for a widespread 2.5-3.5 inches locally 4 inches.
This animation show the storm perfectly but doesnt cover the whole second round but within this animation we get 2.5-3 inche
This weekend looks great … a little chilly with highs in the low 60s for suburbs and mid 60s for Newark lows in the mid 40s for suburbs and upper 40s for Newark and other city locations in NE NJ/NYC but sunny. The only issue is Friday night into Saturday there will be a big windstorm with winds 25-35 mph so Saturday could turn out to feel much chillier than the lower 60s
Next week spells BIG TROUBLE, especially towards mid-week.
This is next Weds- Thursday, look at this monstrous storm coming up the east coast!!! This could be tropical in nature or it could be another nor’easter but either way the pattern points to something like this happening ( as you can see with this upcoming storm) with this storm coming tomorrow we were able to forecast it a week out because of the pattern and this pattern isn’t going anywhere anytime soon so I expect a much bigger storm next week than the one we are about to see. I don’t see it actually having a name but more of a very potent nor’easter. There will be a disturbance, much stronger than the one we are seeing now coming from the west that should phase with a low pressure system coning out of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, a cold front is expected to stall right along the coast , so tropical moisture will train up the east coast leading to potentially several inches of rainfall.
We saw a storm like this last October (if anyone remembers) we had 4-6 inches in NJ and some parts of PA had over a foot of rain!! This looks very similar but the details will obviously have to be ironed out as we get closer.
So prepare for a rainy end to the week this week, a very nice weekend then based on the pattern expect an extremely wet middle to end of next week. I should also say that something like this could give some parts of PA their first major snowfall of the season.
Over the weekend im really going to study this storm because this could be very bad for our area with almost 40 inches of rain that fell since August first.
The map below is from a longer range model that shows the very active pattern I have been harping about and this is the result
If you cant see it , that is 10 inches of rain within the next week and a half or so , that is with this storm and part of the storm next week combined