(You can find this radar and others on the NJ radars page throughout the storm)
This afternoon I am starting with the radar because the nor’easter I have been talking about is here. The first wave of rain is slowly coming to an end but there’s still another band of heavy rain expanding over Central NJ and Southern NJ moving north before we get into somewhat of a break later this afternoon. I expect a break between 3pm and 8pm before more rain fills back in. I can’t rule out drizzle or pop up showers in the break as showers are popping up over South Jersey and Delaware but it just wont be steady like we just had
The next wave of heavy rain is currently over Virginia moving north. This will bring periods of heavy rain to the forecast region tonight through early tomorrow morning. The steady rain should move north early tomorrow morning but I expect widespread showers and pop up thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon that could bring very heavy rainfall
(You can find this satellite on the East Coast Satellite Page throughout the storm)
Theres a lot of tropical moisture coming up the coast so storms that do form in the afternoon tomorrow will bring very heavy rainfall into tomorrow night.
Then the rain turns more steady again Friday with periods of heavy rain and heavy thunderstorms as the disturbance over the Mid west phases with the nor’easter. This is when the heaviest rain of the forecast period will fall as the storm will be much more dynamic once the phase takes place as well as winds 15-30 mph.
The storm finally exits stage north Friday night and behind it comes a very cool, dry air mass with very windy conditions Friday night through Saturday.
Saturday highs will range from 60 to 65 in the warm spots with very windy conditions with lows around 45-48 degrees
Sundays highs around the same but with diminishing winds highs 60-65 lows 45-48 degrees
Monday and Tuesday looks dry sunny and cool with 60-65 for highs and lows 40-45
Weds through Friday we may be looking at a very big storm coming up the coast
The pattern strongly supports a storm like this happening, which if it came true would easily lead to a widespread 4+ inches next Weds-Friday. Theres a very deep tropical connection with a strong coastal storm phasing with a very dynamic system that would be coming out of the midwest (similar to this storm just much stronger) I will be watching this through the weekend as there’s still a lot of details to iron out but just keep in mind there could be a very big storm next Wednesday through Friday. This would be very similar to a storm we had last October where NJ saw 4-6 inches and PA saw 10-12 inches just slightly more east
And sure enough there’s a wide swath of 4-6 inches through PA into Northern NJ. This is something to watch. This is something that can miss us but the pattern points towards this and this is the same exact pattern that lead us to be able to forecast this current nor’easter 1 week in advance
And if that’s not enough for you here is storm number 3
Yet another coastal storm that forms in the Gulf of Mexico and moves up the East Coast for the following week, obviously wayy to far out to predict for but the pattern that supports all the coastal storms is not going away thus the reason I expect another bad winter
And the grand total of all the storms combined is ………….
10-15 inches of rain!! In 2 weeks 10-15 inches of rain!! That could lead to some real big problems so keep posted as the wet pattern continues. We have seen 3 ft of rain since August first and we are EASILY on our way to THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD!!!