This post will be on the storm that is coming next week. Its going to be a perfect set up for a coastal storm to come up the coast.
We are going to have a ridge developing in the west will which drive a trough towards to east coast very slowly. Associated with the trough will be a cold front that will tap into tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico which will be driven up the east coast. There will also be some blocking in the Atlantic called a negative NAO which will slow it down a little.
Meanwhile a strong area of low pressure will form along the front and looks to track somewhere between the Appalachians and the NJ coast. The exact track of this low pressure and speed will determine how much rainfall we get. If it tracks just west of us we could see 2-4 inches , if it tracks east of us or over us it would be 1-2 inch rainfall.
The track will be determined by how slow the cold front is moving.
This image shows i what happens if it tracks just west of us which would lead to 2-4 inches of heavy wind-driven rainfall.
There is no real consensus on if this will track east of us, west of us or over us. Based on the dominant storm track we have had thus far this fall it would track west of us but that doesn’t really mean anything. The best model has been back and forth showing a track over NJ or the Appalachians and Eastern PA.
This trough looks to be negative tilted in nature which would drive in moisture off the Atlantic SE to NW, so which ever track it may take I still expect a heavy rainfall event Wednesday into Thursday.
The coldest air mass of the season will be driven in behind this potentially powerful storm, and also it could get quite windy behind it. I believe we may see our first widespread frost of the season later this upcoming week or weekend.
I also want to note that one model has the first snowstorm of the season coming October 26-28. The chances of that are obviously slim but I find it interesting and based on the factors and crazy weather lately it wouldn’t shock me at all to get some October snow, it’s not like it never happened before. Whether it happens or not, winter is on its way (: