Well theres no doubt now that this storm is going to happen , the low that was in the Gulf of Mexico is now rapidly intensifying over the SE coast with heavy rains expanding and intensifying over the SE US slowly moving north. This is what we call a MECS (Major East Coast Storm) There is also some light showers already developing over South Jersey as moisture is beginning to surge up the coast.
This animation is the past 2 hours, you can see the rain is intensifying and expanding fast and will continue to do so through the night and you can also see the light rain developing by Atlantic City NJ. If you look closely you can see the rain starting to move SE to NW into North Carolina and that means this storm is really wrapping up
The good news is this is a fairly fast mover but very intense which will make up for that
That tail of heavy rain going through central Georgia is the rain coming towards Jersey and the “comma head” over South Carolina is headed towards Long Island. I expect skies to become overcast if they aren’t already followed by increasing winds shifting to the NE by morning at 10-20 mph then 20-30 by afternoon. Scattered showers should start coming north around the 5-6 am period and become steady by 9-10 am.
A coastal front will develop right along the coast, enhancing lifting and rainfall and will send intense rainfall from SE to NW tomorrow afternoon.
My rainfall forecast
NW NJ – 1 inch maybe up to 1.25 (Sussex , Warren and Somerset Counties)
NE NJ – 1.5-2 inches locally 2.5 (Union, Passaic and Morris Counties)
I95 (NYC -Philly)- 2-2.5 inches locally 3 inches (Middlesex County and along I95 NYC – Trenton – Philly and interior South Jersey)
SE of I95 (SE NJ) 2-3 inches up to 4 inches in possible thunderstorms (Monmouth,Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May Counties as well as Long Island
These numbers are very volatile as we have deep tropical moisture which the models can miss sometimes, therefore I am going a bit over what the models are showing because they are under doing it and it is developing faster than expected. It also depends on the coastal warm front, if it develops a bit farther NW most of NJ could see 2.5-4 inches
Just keep in mind that there will be a steady moderate to heavy windswept rain tomorrow throughout the state of NJ and flooding will be possible especially in the eastern half of the state where the most intense rainfall will be. It’s just going to be a nasty day so be careful driving as both rush hours will be significantly effected especially the afternoon rush hour.