My concerns from before are coming true. The storm is intensifying faster than expected and the models underestimates the tropical moisture once again.
I will be upping rainfall totals for 2 main reasons…
1. Light rains are expanding well ahead of the actual storm. This lighter rain was not supposed to reach the ground but it is as the atmosphere is moistening up faster than expected. This really is not going to add much to rainfall totals just something to address and could make the rain start several hours before I expected.
2. The storm is strengthening faster than the even the most aggressive model predicted and the rainfall is much more expansive as the radar really exploded tonight and continues to do so
On the radar the rain is intensifying fast and the storm is really getting wrapped up. Its moving pretty fast but that was expected. Winds a few hours ago over the SE US were 5-10 mph now are intensifying to 15-20 mph and this low is only going to get stronger as moving north. That means the rain is going to continue to intensify and the winds will also continue to intensify and I expect 20-30 mph winds with higher gusts out of the ENE.
NW NJ(Sussex, Warren and Somerset Counties) – Before 1-1.5 inches – Now – 1.25-1.75 (Still Volatile and subject to change as latest signs point to the heaviest rain over Northern NJ, could end up being 1.75-2.5 inches)
NE NJ (Union , Passaic and Morris Counties)- Before 1.5-2 inches – Now 1.75 – 2.25 inches (Still Volatile and subject to change as latest signs point to heaviest rain over Northern NJ, could end up being 2-3 inches)
NYC-Philly- Before- 1.75-2.5 I think I am going to keep that the same
SE of I95-2-3 inches I am also going to keep that the same (could actually go down if indeed the heaviest rain heads towards North Jersey)
Another complicated storm as the models were no help once again so I am in now casting mode now and basically ignoring the models and looking at the radar and observations
The main difference is that there’s not going to be as much as a gradient from east to west anymore and actually the heaviest rain on the radar if it was to stay the way it is would track right towards northern NJ, just something to watch and this is what the latest model shows, the heaviest rain in North Jersey I am still a bit skeptical but if that happens 2-3 inches would become much more likely for the Raritan and Passaic River Valleys which is exactly what they do not need as they have had several flooding episodes the last 2.5 months.