The chilly fall pattern is finally here. Sure we have had a very chilly days and nights this fall but overall it has been relatively mild with temperatures about 2 degrees above normal so far the last 30 days. Not anything terribly warm or blow torch just a bit above average.
Over the next 4-5 days temperatures will be around to slightly below normal than drop below normal the middle of next week
Today highs will struggle to reach 60 in the suburbs and may reach 60-61 in urban locations like Newark. There will be cloudy intervals and a cold breeze out of the WNW.
Tonight as high pressure builds in , skies will clear and temperatures will drop from the mid 30s over NW NJ , upper 30s for NE NJ and 40-43 for Newark and NYC
I got a very good question yesterday asking me why it is always a bit warmer in Newark and NYC then the suburbs of Kenilworth , Cranford Westfield etc. You would think temperatures would be the same being all these towns are within 10 miles or so of Newark but instead are 4-6 degrees colder especially at nighttime. During the day temperatures range from 1-4 degrees colder
It is a phenomenon called the ” City/Urban Heat Island Effect”
In cities such as Newark and NYC there are very tall buildings and nothing but tar and concrete and the streets absorb all the solar energy from the sun making it hotter in these locations during the day. Also a lot of heat comes off building and cars and trains etc that contributes to it being hotter in the cities
At night the tar and the tall buildings hold the heat in the city and it takes much longer for the heat to escape
In the rural areas and suburbs outside of these cities there is not as much tar to hold in the heat more open sky’s for the heat to escape much quicker at night.
This is the reason why Newark’s low last night was 51 , while in Kenilworth I recorded a low of 46.
Anyway, frost is possible across NW and interior NE NJ tonight with lows 35-39 degrees to 42-45 in the cities. Saturday night has potential to be even colder with frost possible for Sussex, Warren, Somerset and Western Union County both nights.
Saturdays and Sundays temperatures will be similar to today with upper 50s to lower 60s and lows upper 30s to lower 40s
A cold front comes through Monday to reinforce the Polar air mass in place , also a few showers are possible with similar temperature. High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday with highs in the 50s lows in the 40s
With this new polar air mass a series of disturbances will drop NW TO SE leading to showers possible Weds and Thursday with a chance of one of these developing into a strong coastal low and some models hinting at cold enough air coming in behind this coastal low for snow to mix in Thursday night.