Monday , Tuesday and Wednesday looks to be fairly nice with temperatures 60-65 and lows around 45 – 50 in Newark. There is a chance of showers Monday night with a cold front but not really a big deal. High pressure will build in Tuesday and Wednesday making fairly sunny skies. The key is that the front will stall in the vicinity of the area
Starting Thursday, strong disturbances will ride the front which will be over or just south of us leading to showers on Thursday becoming more steady for Friday and possibly Saturday. The current forecast low for Thursday is 36 degrees in Union County and colder as you go NW, with temperatures aloft well below freezing if this temperature does pan out I would expect snow to mix in I still have my doubts though. Models continue to show a decent rain storm with backend snow showers for the area with possible accumulations NW NJ Poconos and into NY State with potential for NY state to get the first major snowstorm of the year.
I think we get about 1 inch of rainfall followed by snow flurries at the very end of the storm for NE NJ ,NW NJ has potential to see snow showers and NE PA (Poconos) and points North and NW has potential for accumulating snows. I think many areas will see the first flakes of the season and a major snow storm for NY State. I will be keeping an eye on this snow threat
Either way by Saturday or Sunday into Tuesday, the freezing line is well south of northern NJ with lows in the 20s to lower 30s possible to mid 30s over southern NJ and highs stuck in the 40s , maybe 50 if you are lucky.
Halloween right now looks chilly with highs maybe in the lower 50s if not 40s and lows in to 20s and 30s
We warm up a bit ahead of the next cold front next Tuesday and Wednesday, before that cold front comes through and gives us our next cold shot. It’s not going to be a huge warm up as we are now in an over all colder pattern , looks like we will warm up to around average or ever so slightly above before we fall right back below average.
That red line going through the Great Lakes is the next cold front with a very broad trough associated with it, this looks like it would be a more prolonged cold shot should this come true.