Not much to talk about for tonight and tomorrow, just some showers tonight and sunny skies tomorrow with lower 60s as highs and mid 40s for lows.
The main things im watching are the rainstorm coming in on Thursday which should dump a good 0.75-1 inch of rain and end as some flurries, especially for NW NJ and PA and could possible end as snow for as far SE as NYC as temperatures drop to the upper 30s and the upper atmosphere falls into the 20s behind the system
The 2nd storm for this weekend looks like it could bring much more widespread snowfall. It looks like a coastal storm is pretty much definite now. There will be plenty of cold air to pull down, it’s just a matter of how strong the low pressure is and the exact track. The stronger the system is , the more cold air it will pull down , as long as it tracks east of the area.
The latest European model starts us off as very heavy rain Saturday afternoon for everyone. Then as the low tracks off the Delaware coast, the freezing line starts coming south and the Poconos change to snow by 12-3am Sunday morning, then as the storm explodes , the freezing line shoots SE and off the coast and everyone goes to snow on Sunday. It shows 0.25-0.50 of liquid but in snow form for NJ which means 2.5-5 inches worth of snow would fall from the sky. The Poconos would see 6+ inches. Of course the ground is still very warm and wet so probably only a little bit of snow would stick , especially with surface temperature marginal at best at 32-35 degrees for northern NJ, the Poconos would be in the 20s so there’s no issue with sticking there. This model is the best at medium range (3-5 days out)
Now do I think there will really be accumulating snow in NJ?
The answer to that is still no. Its hard enough to get snow flakes here during October let alone accumulating snow. I do think snow will mix in with the rain and may even turn to all snow on the back-end of the storm. so I think snow falling from the sky is a good chance , but I still question heavy accumulating snow. I do think the Poconos have a good chance a accumulations.
Can it happen … of course it can, especially with all the crazy weather going on lately but the odds are against really anything more than snow showers for NJ. I will keep an eye but just remember (if you like snow) that any snow in October is pretty rare and should be taken as a treat, even if it’s just flurries and if you like snow it should make you happy having even a flurry in October because it may be a sign of things to come for the winter
We still have to watch the track as there’s always the chance that the storm can miss us all together but there’s increasing confidence that Saturday into Sunday will be at least rainy if not snowy.
This is the American model on Saturday night, this is all snow for just about everyone besides the SE NJ coast and a fairly significant snowstorm
This is Sunday and it looks like this model has a rain snow mix along I95 to all snow by the time you get to NW NJ this is the model sowing 2.5-5 inches of snow for Jersey
I just wanted to note that , if this were December or January, this would be a major snowstorm and even the storm on Thursday would probably be a major snowstorm.