Looks like a rainy Thursday on the way with steady moderate rain at times heavy, looks like a .50 – 1 inch event. I’m thinking some flakes mix on over Northern NJ and looks to turn to all snow for the Poconos tomorrow night. By the time it gets cold enough the precipitation will be more showery but who ever gets precipitation tomorrow night should expect a mix of rain and snow. But overall this is a mainly rainstorm , perhaps the Poconos get a coating of wet snow and maybe the highest elevations of NW NJ and looks like just some wet flakes in the rain anywhere SE of Sussex County to NYC and anyone SE OF 195 can expect all rain.. Tomorrows highs will occur in the morning around the upper 40s to lower 50s before we drop into the 40s the afternoon as cold air comes in then eventually drop to 30-35 degrees tomorrow night. Looks like tomorrow night will bring the first freeze for many locations especially NW of I95. I see western Union County and points NW seeing lows 32 or below with Newark / NYC around 35 or so. So don’t be surprised to see some wet flakes tomorrow night.
We seem to be converging on a solution for Saturday , which is a weaker storm and further offshore. But close enough to bring a mix of rain and snow throughout most of Jersey
This is Saturday night, with light to moderate snow for the I95 corridor basically NYC south. This time of the year I look for the 534 temperature line as the mix line and the mix line is over Cape May County so clearly northern NJ is all snow. NW NJ gets little to nothing while NYC and Philly would get 1-3 inches of snow. My friend and a very good meteorologist Joe Bastardi expects 1-3 inches from Western Delaware to Boston along and just NW of I95. While the heaviest precipitation is along the coast, it is a mix or maybe even all rain for extreme SE NJ due to very warm ocean temperatures. So while the heaviest precipitation is for SE NJ AND Long Island, NYC and Philly and just west would get the most snow. The pattern supports more of a storm track like this and this is my thinking.
I have my doubts as it is October still and not December especially for the sticking factor. I think if this happens we will see snow fall from the sky but will have a very hard time sticking and probably none will stick if this comes true except to maybe cars. Whether it sticks or not, any snow in October is truly a treat if yu like snow.
With this pattern, this storm can still go Out to sea and miss completely and there’s still a few days to watch this.
If it was to track a bit further west, the heaviest precipitation would come further west but so would the warmer air and I95 would be in the mix of rain and snow and if it tracks any further east we dont get anything besides maybe some scattered precipitation. Basically if you want snow in NYC, NE NJ and Central NJ this is the perfect track for it in October.
Unfortunately in October you just cant get the heaviest precipitation and have it be snow (thus the reason that the biggest October snow around here is 2 inches) so its either a little bit of snow or no snow and either rain or a rain snow mix
The 12z GFS showed a further east solution with just some showers around while the European model continues to show a rain to snow solution
If we dont get this storm which is still a possibility, Saturday would be mostly cloudy and highs in the upper 40s and Sunday would be about the same . Lows from Thursday night through Sunday night will range from 30-35 degrees and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
For Halloween and next week we warm up ever so slightly with highs in the low 50s maybe 55 and lows in the upper 30s before our next possible system comes in mid-week next week.