Today as a warm front moves through, there will be some showers around, not really a big deal and mainly light showers. Tonight the warm front will turn into a cold front as it starts moving back south and stalls just south of us. Tomorrow a strengthening area of low pressure will ride the front from west to east though Southern NJ leading to moderate to at times heavy rain tomorrow with .75-1 inch expected. Tomorrow afternoon, as cold air comes in behind the storm temperatures will start to fall from the low to mid 50s into the 40s as the afternoon goes on. Then tomorrow night as temperatures fall into the 30s , I expect snow to mix with the rain at times. Not really a big deal but there could be a coating over the Poconos and NW NJ and the rest of the Northern NJ may see the first flakes of the season.
Now for Saturday, the models agree there will be a storm , the strength is still in question but the most of the models do have some type of coastal low affecting the area Saturday. It looks like we will start off as mainly rain on Saturday as the surface temperatures wouldnt really support snow with mid 40s for highs, I can’t rule out a few wet snowflakes as the upper atmosphere will be more than cold enough to support snow. On Saturday night though , when temperature fall into the 30s that is when the snow would really begin to mix in and would change to all snow over NW NJ and NE PA with a rain and wet snow mix for I95 gradually turning to more snow than rain as you move NW
The exact strength and track of this storm are still uncertain. It seems to me like the models have agreed on a weaker storm and farther offshore but close enough to bring light to moderate rain/ snow to NJ and East PA. The whole storm is still in question as the pattern isn’t all that favorable. There are some things going for it but also some things going against it.
If this storm does indeed impact us , I expect soe accumulating snow for NW NJ and NE PA with 1-3 inches if it’s a weaker storm and could be much more if it ends up being a stronger storm. NE NJ and I95 would not see any accumulation in my opinion because surface temperatures here would most likely be above freezing but still I would expect some snow to fall from the sky Saturday afternoon into nighttime hours with a rain and wet snow mix possibly turning to all snow for brief time before the storm exits. Anyone SE of I95 will get mainly rain with a few wet snowflakes mixed in.
Eventually if the my confidence in this storm grows and it becomes likley I will do a county by county analysis of who gets what kind of snow hopfully by Friday.
There are still questions to be answered and this is not written in stone yet but it’s looking more and more likely that we will indeed see our first snow this weekend (besides some flakes Thursday night) .