Today is simple, sunny and chilly with highs around 50 and a bit of as breeze at times and lows falling into the upper 30s tonight showers come in later tonight
Now for Saturday :
SE of I95 – Very heavy rain, some flakes will mix in and could briefly turn to snow at the very end . Trace to coating at best 1.5-2.5 inches of rain
I95 will start off as rain and probably get quite a bit of it in the morning and early afternoon, there could be as much as 1 inch of rain before the change over to a mix then snow late afternoon 1-3 inches expected for NYC ( too close to the warm Ocean), Philly and Trenton 2-4 inches (farther away from the warm ocean) The snow could come down quite heavy tomorrow evening for the cities but will have a hard time sticking with temperatures above freezing at the surface. Even 2 inches of this snow could cause power outages as it will be very heavy and wet. Temperatures above freezing mainly but snow could fall heavy enough to over rule that and stick to grassy surfaces
NE NJ/ Central NJ Union Somerset Hunterdon etc. – Start as plain heavy rain, could get a lot of rain late morning into early afternoon before we turn to a mix mid afternoon then all snow by late afternoon I’m expecting 2-4 inches for Western Union County and Eastern Somerset and surrounding areas ,and 1-3 inches over eastern Union County. The heaviest snow recorded in October in Union and Essex County is 0.3 inches so we could very well end up with the snowiest October on record lol. Temps expected to drop 30-32 tomorrow evening so I am a more confident with accumulations
The stick factor is hard to determine for I95 and NE NJ as there will be a lot of heavy rain before the changeover and the ground will be wet, snow will probably only stick to grass and cars , roads should stay wet
If the Weather Channel is correct, NYC will see 2-4 inches and NE NJ/Central NJ will see 3-6 inches, I just find it hard to believe at this time.
Northern NJ Passaic, Morris ETC – Rain to Mix to Snow 3-6 inches expected here (Winter Storm Watch in effect)
NW NJ – Dominant precip is snow , will start off as a mix but quickly change to snow and I expect 6-8 inches. (Winter Storm Watch in effect)
NE PA basically all snow , could start off as mix, however heaviest precip will be SE over NJ so I expect 6-8 inches for you guys too could be locally up to 10 inches. (Winter Storm Watch in effect)
I expect all watches to turn to warnings and NE NJ should end up in a Winter Weather Advisory I would think and probably I95 could be winter storm watches for NE NJ if the 3-6 that The Weather Channel has should become a reality
Power outages will be big throughout the area predominantly NW of I95 with trees full of leaves and very heavy wet snowfall.
Still getting some interesting model solutions to look out for
Widespread 10-14 inches NYC just west would translate to probably 4-6 inches with heavy wet snow
14-20 over NW NJ and NE PA should translate to 10+ inches with heavy wet snow
Most consistent – 3-6 for I95 to 4-7 for just west
Euro and NAM in good agreement
Warmest and wettest model – 1-3 inches for the city 2-4 just west more rain than anything 1+ inches , im sticking with the warmer and wetter solution for now being its October could change though .
If this were December , we would be talking a widespread 1-2 foot snowfall.