The cold front this morning is just over NW NJ slowly moving SE. As expected from my update last night the and of rain has weakened but not completely collapsed into some showers, and as a matter of fact an area of low pressure had developed just west of NJ, that may help enhance rainfall. As long as the cold front is NW of your area the rain will be NW, the cold front is over NW NJ and so is the leading edge of rain. Temperatures will again be quite mild in reaching the mid 60s in a modest SW wind, if it was sunny records would probably be broken as temps are in the 60s already but with clouds and showers they wont be able to rise much
So as the cold front is ever so slowly moving south, those showers on the southern end of the steady rain will move NE into the area. The best dynamics and moisture advection will remain over the Ohio Valley as strong area of low pressure is developing over Texas so that’s the steadiest and heaviest rain will be today, those dynamics and the low will move ENE and off the Southern NJ coast tomorrow evening. So basically , there is a band of rain from NW NJ to Northern Mexico that will slowly move SE, the front will stall over South Jersey as a strong low developing in Mexico/ Texas moves ENE and should clear out early Thursday morning although some models want to linger the rain through the day Thursday. I am expecting 1-2 inches for the area locally more up to 2.5 in the heavier rain bands as this moisture is directly from the Gulf of Mexico and the rain will be quite heavy at times. Tomorrows highs will be reached in the morning before a NW wind kicks in by the late morning and temperatures will fall through the 50s and into the 40s tomorrow afternoon then into the mid 30s for lows
Thursdays highs will be in the mid to upper 40s and quite cloudy and some models want to keep the rain around too, just something to watch lows will drop into the uppers 20s to around the freezing mark, also it will be windy so Thursday will be nasty even if it doesn’t rain
Friday will be nice but chilly with highs in the upper 40s maybe 50 and lows again in the upper 20s – 32 degrees
We moderate Saturday and Sunday ahead of the next cold front, but not as much as we have been, we will moderate into the mid to upper 50s this time around not the upper 60s (part of the pattern change) Sunday will be the warmest but cloudiest day of the weekend, a cold front will move through Monday, with not much juice but will stall south of us and creat the potential for another significant rain on Tuesday, kind of what we have now but colder.
Major changes in the 10 day forecast, from 60s today and tomorrow than the 40s become dominant especially as we head into next week and the storm track starts to shift further south as well
We have a Thanksgiving preview of cloudy and 45 degrees for a high, quite cold