Our first wave of rain came through overnight with a cold front, not much fell only about 0.25. Now the cold front is moving south of us as Canadian high pressure takes control. The front will go far enough south and enough cold and dry air will come in to possibly clear out the clouds this afternoon and early evening. Tonight skies should be partly cloudy to start but overcast again by the time you wake up. A cold night is in store with lows 32-37 degrees
Here is the radar and the rain that came through is now offshore, there’s another band over Western PA that has to be watched which may make this afternoon wet and not clearing out like expected. But you can see out storm getting organized over the southern Plains where severe weather is possible this afternoon. That band of heavy rain will start to move NE later tonight ans the initial low over Texas moves NE towards Pittsburgh. It is similar to last Wednesday, where the cold front went south, that comes back north as a warm front and a band of heavy rain came through, except this time its stronger , slower moving and the heaviest rain will target northern NJ this time
You can see all the moisture is temporarily being pushed south into southern NJ where the front is expected to stall later today. So southern NJ will keep the clouds and a chance of showers while northern NJ has a chance to clear out this afternoon and tonight, except that band over western PA that may bring a period of rain later today
Our highs have occurred already 48-52 degrees, and will stay the same or fall slightly this afternoon
On the water vapor theres is a low pressure system developing over Texas and moving NE , as the low moves NE that train of moisture and the cold front will come back north as a warm front and a strong one at that with a lot of moisture to work with
The initial low will track ENE through western PA and into NY State and rapidly strengthen in the tight temperature gradient across the country which will set the stage for very heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding
The track of the low and the strengthning will bring in a very strong SE wind especially along the coast which will really pile up the water and set the stage for significant coastal flooding Wednesday
If you look at the bottom corner left image, that’s the wind on early Weds morning around 2 am and there’s a strong SE jet streak at 25-35 mph screaming onshore and to the west there is a 45-65 mph jet streak that will moving in Wednesday afternoon. These winds are aloft at 850 mb. This is going to bring in abundant atlantic moisture and in heavier rain bands some of those 45 mph gusts may make it to the surface, mainly coastal locations, more inland Northern NJ would see 15-25 mph winds gusts to 35 at times. Wednesday will be quite warm with the strong SSE wind with temperatures in the upper 50s and low to mid 60s along the coast
The rain will begin to fill in Tuesday afternoon, become steady and heavy Tuesday niht through Wednesday evening along with increasing winds Tuesday night
There a nice little bullseye over the NE NJ and NYC metro of 3-4 inches!! This is from HPC update this morning and there’s a stripe of 2-4 inch rains from Texas to Massachusetts.
Most models agree on more of a 1.5-2.5 inch rainfall so this may be overdone but given the set up I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 3-4 inch amounts, especially if we can get some thunderstorms which will be possible as a warm and unstable air mass moves in. Flooding will be a concern and the worst of it will be Wednesday morning and afternoon , the busiest travel day of the year and the rain will start Tuesday afternoon.
it will clear out Wednesday night. But the low will intensify off of the NE US coast and send down some nasty wind and cold air for Thanksgiving with highs only in the mid 40s with a strong NW wind and lows in the upper 20s to around 30.
It wont last long though, as the SE ridge takes control again Friday and we moderate ahead of our pattern changing cold front. 55-58 on Friday, same on Saturday and lower 60s for Sunday, and the cold front comes through Monday
This could be another pretty nasty rain event, as a strong upper low moves into the Great lakes, it will drag an occluded front through the area. An occluded front is where the warm and cold air meet up hand in hand and these typically bring impressive rainfall, thunderstorms and wind. This is something to watch for especially with the rain we had last week, a huge storm this week so flooding looks to come back into the picture.
This reminds me of the period of August through October, back in a very wet pattern again. We are going to really secure that wettest year on record. This occluded front and upper low will send down some arctic air by the looks of it now and it will establish a trough in the east and ridge in the west once again just in time for the meteorological start of winter (December 1st)
By December 1st about 75-80% of the country is under a trough. That black line represents the trough in the corner bottom right image basically from Seattle to Texas than Texas to Washington DC ad anyone north of that black line is in some pretty cold air and that blue line is VERY COLD air which is right on our door step.