This morning we have our cold front that came through Monday morning coming back north as a strong and strengthening warm front. A cold air mass has become established over the area, with temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s. As the warm air from the south comes north its going to override the cold air which it’s doing now and will cause developing showers moving SW to NE gradually getting heavier as the day goes on. Along with the overrunning rains is the very strong lifting the front is creating. Avery strong low is now over Missouri and is going to move ENE towards west PA which is whats causing the front to come north. So we will get overrunning showers and drizzle today then the rain with the main low will arrive tonight into tomorrow morning
The light rain and showers over NJ is the overrunning I was talking about and the edge of the main area of precipitation is entering SW PA. This overrunning has bought .25 of rain. That tail of very heavy rain and thunderstorms is headed this way for later today through Wednesday afternoon.
The warm front will move north bringing the heavy rain with it tonight and it looks like enough lifting will occur for thunderstorms later tonight. A strong jet streak developing aloft will also enhance moisture , rainfall and instability for thunderstorms. This jet streak will peak at 50-60 mph later tonight so it could be quite windy at times , especially in heavy downpours then again as the storm is exiting on Thanksgiving
In summary, showers and drizzle today becoming more widespread and numerous as the day progresses and the warm front moves towards us, the worst will be tonight into Wednesday afternoon with heavy rain thunderstorms and wind.
The heaviest rain is expected from Northern NJ through Long Island and into Connecticut up to about Boston with a widespread 2+ inches through out the whole region with 2-3 over the area mentioned above locally 3-4 inches. Heaviest rain is over North Jersey due to the track moving just south of us which will prolong the rain for us while southern NJ and the coast go more showery or even dry for a time tomorrow once the warm front goes north of them
Flood watches are being issued
Thanksgiving looks windy and chilly with highs 45-50 and winds out of the NW 15-25 gusts to 35 at times wind chills in the upper 30s to lower 40s at times
Friday we will start to moderate back into the mid 50s than upper 50s Saturday maybe 60 on Sunday with overall sunny skies each day
Monday another strong low will track east and possibly meander around for a few days and looks like another significant rainfall next week. The exact timing , track and amounts are impossible to predict at this time but keep in mind ANOTHER major storm is likely at some point next week, looks like Monday into Tuesday as of now