This will be our last warm weekend for a while, so enjoy it, put up your Christmas decorations because next weekend doesnt look too pleasant (temperature wise) to be outside for prolonged periods of time
But for today highs in the mid 60s can be expected, close to records for many but it appears we will come just shy of those records in the upper 60s, lows tonight drop to around 40
Tomorrow, will be a bit more cloudy than today, still a nice day though with highs a bit cooler in the low 60s due to high pressure loosing its grip, lows in the mid 40s due to increasing cloud cover
Monday a cold front will come in from the west , with a slight chance of showers but looks mainly dry and cooler, but again still quite warm for the time of year, in the upper 50s
Tuesday we increase the chance of showers and highs in the mid to upper 50s, as the front stalls in the vicinity of the area.
An area of low pressure will develop over the SE and slowly move north, and track somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes and Central PA Wednesday. The exact track will tell a lot. Either way the heaviest rain will remain west of us but if it tracks into PA as opposed to the Great Lakes, we can be looking at a 1-2 inch rainfall, however if it tracks further west into the great Lakes, only 0.50 to maybe 0.75 can be expected. Wednesday will be the rainiest day of the three but the exact track will determine exactly how much rain occurs. Wednesday also marks the beginning of a colder pattern with highs in the mid 40s
This is a cut off upper low which is nearly impossible to forecast more than 48 hours out, so tomorrow and especially Monday I will have a better idea of what to expect.
Latest HPC Forecast
Latest rainfall forecast brings 1-1.5 inches. You can see the heaviest rain is clearly west of us. If this shifts east rainfall amounts increase, or if it shifts west rainfall amounts go down
It will clear out by Thursday , so Thursday and Friday will be sunny, chilly with highs in the mid to upper 40s perhaps a 50 degree reading on Friday, around average. The pattern we are going into is nothing extremely cold , but more of a seasonably cold (average) pattern temperature wise ,this is a big step down to winter but still more things have to change before we get into the real cold and snow. The main thing that is changing here is that the PNA is going neutral to positive, which is a ridge signal in the west and a trough signal in the east, BUT the northern Atlantic still has to change. The NAO is positive and is not expected to change in the near future, same with the AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) which will keep the coldest air from the upper Midwest and Canada.
So December will start off on a chilly note, around average, by next weekend we go below average with highs maybe only in the upper 30s to lower 40s. I still expect the first 10-15 days to be up and down but dominantly cold, lately its been 4-5 warm days and 1-2 colder days, I expect that to switch and become dominantly colder days as a trough develops from the Pacific NW to the Mid Atlantic and NE
Models still hinting at a minor snow event in the later part if the first week of December, so something to watch. But the main idea here is that we are stepping down to winter , slowly but we are stepping down and I think around the 15th or maybe slightly after that, it looks like we will get into the real cold and snow