This morning skies are partly to mostly cloudy, that should quickly turn overcast.
An upper level low is well-formed over Tennessee giving the south a snowstorm while we are on the warm and wet side. The position of this low is bringing in SE wind off the Atlantic and we are starting to see showers developing over southern NJ and the coastal waters, which are expected to move SSE to NNW again due to the SE flow around the upper low. This SE flow will also create another very mild and humid day with highs around 65. DON’T GET USED TO IT. I know its hard not to get used to it being its been warm this whole month but big changes are on the way
You can see the showers developing over and just south of Cape MAY and just south of Long Island moving NNW, these wil start to fill in late morning to early afternoon for northern NJ. The main rain event is that band of rain over North Carolina and Virgina. That is associated with a cold/ occluded front. There will be moderate to heavy rain from this evening to early morning. And with the position and strength of the storm and occluded cold front, we will be looking at increasing SE winds which could get quite gusty tonight, 15-25 mph. These gusty winds are already developing along the coast (thus all the showers and moisture moving in) with Toms River and Atlantic City seeing SE winds around 15 mph
I am looking for half an inch along the immediate coast, three quarters of an inch over Northern NJ/NYC metro then .75-1.00 for NW NJ Lehigh Valley and the Poconos locally 1.25
After this storm colder air starts to come in. Tomorrow, highs will range 50-55, so 15-20 degrees colder than today and yesterday. Lows 30-35
Thursday will be similar with highs 50-53 lows 30-35
Friday, another cold front will come through at night, so highs will be about the same as Thursday before a colder air mass comes in Friday night. Lows Friday night 27-32
Saturday highs will range 45-49 lows 26-31, this is not the coldest of air, this is a transient change.
Sunday another cold front will start to approach, but we know how that goes theres is always a moderation ahead of a cold front right? So does that means back to the 60s? NO. While there will be a moderation, it wont be a very big one. Sunday highs will be 50-54 and the same on Monday lows 32-37 degrees, Yes it is a moderation but it’s not the huge warm ups that we have had lately again due to the pattern change occurring.
Tuesday that cold front will slowly move east, and again there’s a chance that low pressure rides along it and gives us another significant rainstorm, behind this cold front is ARCTIC AIR, some models hinting at a rain turning to snow solution but looks like mainly rain at this time. Maybe some snow showers behind it Highs in Tuesday in the mid to upper 40s before dropping at night big time
Wednesday and Thursday at this time look like highs will be only in the mid to upper 30s MAYBE a 40 along the coast, could also be a pretty interesting set up
The -10 degree line at 850 MB is over the area, at the same time there is a storm along the coast, could be a very interesting situation next week, this is a wait and see. Only one model run showing this. All the models agree that its gonna get cold, just don’t all agree on a storm at the same time
Storm or no storm still its gonna get cold mid to late week with highs in the mid 30s to around 40 and lows in the 20s
Models hinting at a possible warm up at the end of next week but there’s another cold front and trough is right behind and the warm up would last about 1 day maybe 2 at the very most. There is no SE ridge so the wind is out of the West and not SW so this would probably be 50 at the very warmest
A very warm November is coming to an end and as the calendar hits December the cold air is coming south!