Basically the whole US baked this November with extreme warmth basically everywhere besides the Pacific NW and the Rockies where multiple snow events have occurred
For here, November was 4-6 degrees above average, in the upper Midwest to the SE temperatures averaged 10+ degrees above normal!!
We had a dominant SE ridge which kept us warm with multiple days of the month well above 60 and 2 days that broke 70!
Now the SE ridge is being squashed and the pattern change I have been harping about is here!!
Today through Friday will be around normal for this time of year with highs in the upper 40s to around 50 and sunny with polar high pressure in control. Night time lows will range from 28-32
Friday afternoon, another polar cold front moves through with a chance of a rain or snow shower but mainly dry. This front will usher in a colder air mass for Saturday with highs in the mid 40s expected lows in the 20s
Sunday as a cold front approaches, and high pressure moves offshore we will moderate ever so slightly to the lower 50s both Sunday and Monday. The threat of showers returns on Monday also
Tuesday, the front will cross SLOWLY and once it gets east, temperatures will drop like a rock.
This is a very interesting set up, we got a slow-moving Arctic cold front, low pressure riding the front passing east of the region and ALOT of cold air moving in. So, while this will mainly be rain, it looks like Tuesday night into Wednesday there will be a transition to a mix of rain and snow and or snow especially I95 points WNW
Poconos and East PA have a chance of accumulating snowfall, a minor event at this time but a snow event is possible. For us in Northern NJ no accumulation snow is expected, by the time it gets cold enough the precip may be more showery so I expect rain turning to snow showers.
This image is Wednesday, this is snow from I95 NW with .10-.25 that would mean 1-2 inches of snow. The GFS group agrees with this, I am skeptical of accumulating snows at this time be cause of all the warmth and rain lately, the ground is very warm and wet. SO I expect snow to fall from the sky next week, but no accumulations, just enough to remind us that winter is on its way
This is the european models image for Wednesday which is more than cold enough for snow as both the 500 mb and 850 mb freezing lines are well off the coast, it’s not showing much if any precipitation around though
With this being said I am going with a compromise between the 2 and saying whatever snow we get will be showery and non accumulating
One thing to watch, is a Lake effect snow event. There may be a massive lake effect snow outbreak behind this front, and I believe there would be a good chance some of that makes it here , as what the Euro is showing on Thursday. It is showing a lingering upper level low to our north with a very strong NW wind and snow showers driving into the region
I expect Weds and Thursday to be quite wintry, even if the snow doesnt work out, temperatures will be stuck in the mid to upper 30s
It warms up on Friday just a tad into the 40s , does not last long though as a cold front and a MASSIVE trough takes over the eastern US, the NAO goes negative and there’s just a ton of cold air
The pattern is changing folks and in a BIG way, plenty of cold Arctic air will be dominant with chances of snow sprinkled in. Also latest models hinting at multiple coastal storms , snowy coastal storms, we are headed into interesting times!!