Good morning and Happy December 1st and it certainly feels like it!!! Also Welcome to the UNOFFICIAL START OF THE WINTER SEASON OF 2011-2012!! Its time for the big countdown to Christmas and the cold came just in time!!
Being it is December 1st, I am going to pubic-ally re post my Winter forecast! No changes have been made. A lot of people changed thier winter forecasts due to the warm pattern we were in during November. It appears that they have made a mistake. I did not make any changes to it and do not plan to and I am very confident with my forecast, especially with the winter pattern becoming established as we speak. The forecast will be available throughout the winter pubic ally on the site, on the top of the web page there is a tab ” Final Winter Forecast 2011-2012″ and will be there until winter is over.
We woke up with temperatures around freezing and ice outside to remind us that winter is coming. For today, it will feel like early winter, with highs 47-49 but with a breeze will feel like the mid 30s to lower 40s at times. Tonight im looking for another freeze with lows 26-31. Tomorrow, will be the same with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s but without a breeze will feel a bit warmer.
A cold front will come through Friday afternoon , making for the coldest day of the season so far by Saturday with highs in the mid 40s and a breeze. Saturday night lows will again be around 30
Sunday as high pressure moves off the coast there will be more of a SW flow, which will warm temps 50-54 degrees lows will range 32-37
Monday , a cold front will approach, with a chance of showers and Tuesday an area of low pressure may ride the front leading to more of a steady rain, and as the cold front moves off the coast and cold air starts moving in, some models are hinting at a possible light snow event if the Tuesday into Wednesday. I am skeptical right now and I am just saying rain will turn into snow showers Tuesday night, but if the trend continues on the models we could be seeing a 1-3 or maybe even 2-4 inch snow event, again I am very skeptical of this happening and just sticking with with a possible changover to to snow showers.
Here is the 00z GFS from last night, showing a 2-5 inch snow even I95 and point WNW and perahpes 1-3 along the coast
Even more interesting is the 06z GFS from this morning showing a major snow storm of 5-10 inches I95 and NW
We clearly have somthing to watch, some models are showing mainly to all rain which is the boat I am on right now given the set up ahead of storm
It looks like the the first 15 days of December will be up and down in temperatures but the cold looks to come more sustained after the 15th. This this is the step down to winter and I expect a trough to become established between the 15-20th