Good Sunday morning everyone
Today will be the final nice day with mild temperatures for a long time to come, sure it’s going to be mild Monday and Tuesday but the warmth will be accompanied by clouds and showers, especially Tuesday
For today sunny this morning turning partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon highs 53-56 slightly above normal. lows tonight will be milder than the past 3 nights, which have fallen into the 20s, lows tonight 34-38 degrees
Tomorrow, skies are looking mainly cloudy, can’t rule out some sun in the morning but should be overcast by afternoon, highs in the mid to upper 50s maybe 60 over SW NJ , tomorrow night look for lows around 40 or so under cloudy skies
Tuesday, as the front approaches the chance of showers increases. I don’t expect much rain at all on Tuesday but some showers will be around as the front moves through the area
Wednesday and Thursday become interesting. Most models have a second wave moving up the cold front. Some have trended with the front too far east and the low goes OTS perhaps scraping extreme southern NJ but the 06z GFS came back to a snowstorm for the area
I am pretty confident there will be a second wave of low pressure riding the front and I am fairly confident it will impact us, the SE ridge wont allow the front to be fast-moving nor get too far SE the big question to me is , will the second wave be rain or snow, or both?
One thing that has to be determined is the strength of the low, the stronger the low the more cold air will be pulled in, im also pretty confident that it will track east of us along the coast not over or west of us so that’s one thing on our side for snow
The weaker the low, the less cold air will be pulled in and thus if it is a weaker low I expect mainly or all rain , this is what im leaning towards at this time due to the fast movement of the low itself, it may not have enough time to strengthen.
I just wanted to point out that is this does turn to a snowier solution we would be talking a light snow event most likely, like 1-3 or 2-4 inches.
This wave will definitely start off as rain, no doubt about that it just depends on how much cold air we can get in the area, if this LOW even hits us, which I think it will. I’m starting to like our chances for at least some snow but still not on board with accumulating snow .
I will be watching the models and keep everyone updated!!!
After this storm plain and simple it gets COLD. By Friday and Saturday highs are looking to only be in the low 40s and lows in the 20s and I expect this cold air to be long-lasting, we are in a pattern change so it may be transient (or back and forth) until around the 15th but overall from Thursday on, I think the cold will become dominant and I expect after December 15-20 that it gets real cold with snow chances becoming much more likely than the one this upcoming week
Here is the latest GFS showing a moderate snowstorm to heavy snowstorm for Northern NJ through interior Southern NJ and mainly if not all rain for coastal SE NJ and Long island. If this run were to verify, a widespread 3-6 or 4-7 inch snowstorm would take place Thursday and would be winter storm warning criteria. The heavy snow over southern NJ would move ENE and dump snow up and down I95 These models will change about 800 times before Wednesday so I will keep you updated!! Until then enjoy the few warm days coming up its coming to a crashing end come Wednesday!!