2011 is ending on a warm note for today and tomorrow but big changes on the way for January 1st 2012.
For today clouds will increase ahead of another clipper, this one is much stronger than yesterday but this time we will be on the warm side as it tracks north of us, a SW wind will develop today with highs 45-50. Tonight I introduce a chance of showers, possible mixing with snow late but its only a 30% chance as it is likely to dry out over the Appalachians again. Lows in the low 30s
New Years eve will be warm yet again with a warm front to the north and a cold front to our west, a SW wind and highs 45-50, lows 28-34, around the time of the ball drop temperatures should be around 40 in NYC , mid 30s west
Sunday will be around the same, the cold front will come through Saturday night but will be weak with not much of an air mass change, highs 45-50 lows in the low 30s,
An ARCTIC cold front will start to progress east Sunday night, with a chance of rain and snow later at night and into Monday. Highs will be early Monday morning, but when the cold front comes through it will be felt! Temperatures will crash into the 30s through the afternoon, very strong NW winds up to 25-35 mph, whatever precip is around will change to all snow, just some showers are expected though
Monday night lows will fall 18-24 degrees with arctic high pressure building in, screaming NW winds 25-35 mph higher gusts possible
Look at that monster trough and temperature at 850 mb are -15 south to -25 north, supports highs in the upper teens to lower 20s north and upper 20s south and lows 0-5 north and west over NE PA and NW NJ, lows in lower teens for NE NJ and 15 or so south along the coast!! The coldest airmass i!n at least the past few years or so
Wednesday will be the same with highs 18-27 lows anywhere from lower single digits over NW areas, lower teens NE and Central NJ and 15 -18 along the immediate coast
Thursday the cold air will start to retreat NE due to the progressive pattern and lack of blocking, but still highs 24-30 and lows 10-19 are expected
Friday through Sunday will warm up back to near normal levels perhaps slightly above with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s but with a ridge out west it will force down cold air into the Eastern US and another arctic shot looks likely starting around the 10th or so.
Its going to be dry though, a dry and cold period coming up. Cant rule out a few cold fronts and clippers but overall looks like the next 10 days will be cold and dry, unfortunatley for snow lovers this seems not to be our year. Warm and wet cold and dry
I still like the looks of latter winter, as La Nina falls apart and the MJO is going into more favorable phases, the NAO AND AO are forecast to gradually drop, my call of 3-4 weeks still stands, until then I expect on and off arctic or polar cold shots with some warm ups in between with perhaps a chance of a small snow event here and there but I really wouldnt expect any big snow storms for the next few weeks or so at least until we get some blocking in the Atlantic