As the saying goes in the winter time ” Mild to wild and cold that vile”
There is always a mild period before a pattern change and we are in that mild period right now.
Today temperatures are staying where they are now which is lower 40s, not neccesarily mild but lets be honest, it could be much colder, thses temps are average for this time of year. lows tonight will range 20-27 so a chilly night, again around average
Monday wil remain around average with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s patrly cloudy skies, a typical cold January day lows 23-30
A weak low will pass south of the are a, most likley we will be dry but the latest Euro wants to bring it more north and have light snow reach the area with 1-2 inches, its the only model showing it and quite frankly I do not buy it with the overall set up anyway, so as of now the forecast is dry with just an increase in clouds
Tuesday will become quite warm as a storm develops over the SE US , it will pump up a ridge out in the Atlantic sending a SSW wind up the coast, highs 46-52 lows 25-32
Wednesday clouds will gradually increase as the developing storm slowly moves NE highs 45-50 winds shifing from W to SE
Wednesday night rain will gradually fill in and overspread the area as the low slowly tracks NE
I expect a general track through just west of the Delmarva, through Southern NJ and NE to Long Island. Originally if this was a normal winter, this would actually be a decent track for a winter storm NW of I95 and into the Poconos, but with a + AO there is the lack of cold air and there will also be a weak clipper over the Great Lakes at the same time leading to more of a SE wind rather than NE wind
The rain will become quite heavy late Wednesday night thriugh Thursday afternoon along with strong winds from the ESE shifting to NW
Here is Thursday around noon time and very heavy rain is in place of NJ with a SE wind due to the low near the Great Lakes and a strong low over Southern NJ
The rain will exit by Thursday evening , a general range of 0.75-1.25 is expected , cant rule out 1.50 in some spots especially along the coast
MUCH COLDER AIR will be coming down behind this storm, this stor mis going to interupt weaken and destroy the Polar Vortex in Northern Canada that has been trapping all the cold air up there
Highs Friday through Sunday will range 25-35 lows will range 15-25 overall. This cold air unlike the last blast looks to stick around for quite some time and it will stay cold through the following week
Here is the forecast NAO forecast to go negative to very negative, its been very positive and thus the wamrth all thanks to the Polar Vortex over Canada and another one over Alaska, but due to the stratospheric warming ( Polar Vortexes are made of cold air aloft) so with warmer air alof t now these will be forced to weaken and break down completley , and it is occuring now over Alaska, so we are not just going by models here but real time , right now observations
AO is going negative again due to the Polar Voretexes being destroyed
Here we are by day 6 (Friday) and 85% or more of the country is under below average temperatures including us. This is a big flip from this week where 85% or more of the country was overwhelmed by wamrth and above average temperatures, with nearly 2,000 record highs from basically the whole country besides the Pacific NW , most of these records came from the Upper Plains and uper Midwest where highs were in the 60s and 70s!!
We clearly have a flip coming, everything is pointing towards it, get ready cause winter is finally coming !!