In my last blog I stated that I do not believe February will be a very wintry month, most likely above normal average temps and below average snowfall, my thoughts havent changed, but I forgot to state what is going for a snowy and cold February which may salvage this winter in the end
There is one major factor with us saying this may be a wintry month, it will all come down to this factor and that is the MJO or Madden Jullian Oscolation, it basically tells us where the strongest tropical convection is, and how strong it is, and the placement of this convection tells us where ridges of high pressure will build and where troughs will develop etc.
There are 8 phases, we have ben in phases 4/5 which lead to warmth and ridging along the east coast along with several other factors that went wrong
3 and 6 are neutral phases, which means they really dont have much of an impact in our area along with the Circle of death which means there is no defined convection
Phases 7-8-and 1 are where you want to be when looking for cold and snow as such placement of tropical convection will pump up a ridge in the west US and thus a trough in the eastern US, add a -AO into the equation and we have a fairly favorable winter pattern
Here is the GFS forecast, you can see we are in phase 5 right now thus all the warmth but clearly heading towards phase 6 and 7
And with that here is the PNA forecast, which tells us whether theres a ridge or trough in the western US and along the West coast
When the PNA is positive, it means theres a ridge in the west and a trough in the east, clearly its shown going positive
European Model Forecast
Here is the European models MJO forecast which has been the most accurate, a clear progreesion towards phase 6/7
Here is the European model clearly showing a + PNA because of the MJO going into phase 7
There is a lot of model agreement BUT last time this was supposed to happen the MJO just circled back into Phases 4/5 so you can see why I am skeptical and there’s more things going against us then with us so my forecast stays of a warm February, but if the MJO really does go into Phase 7 my forecast will probably go down the toilet
This doesn’t guarantee snow but it sure as hell rapidly increases the chances big time, one of several chances are being shown late next week but im very skeptical of the change let alone it coming that fast as the models usually are too fast.
There will also be a race of time, does the MJO influence the atmosphere first or does the west based Nina win? If the MJO wins the West based nina wont matter but if the west based nina wins there is a good chance the MJO wont matter so again you can see why im skeptical and this blog is just stating that there is a CHANCE that February can turn cold and potentially snowy