As many of you know there was a threat for a huge east storm, as you know I was never excited about it because nothing at all pointed to a monster nor’easter coming up the coast, but more like what we are seeing right now, a weaker low staying well south of the forecast area slipping harmlessly out to sea for our standards, although central and south VA are getting a nice snow event, the pattern was never there for this storm to come north and I explained why on Thursday night but will do so again
The main reason is because there isn’t much of a ridge out west, and whatever ridge there is a VERY WEAK and too far east to force a trough down the east coast and pick up the storm, bring it north and all that fun stuff
But the NAO is also positive, and with very little of a western ridge , the flow is moving fast and progressive, which doesnt spell a big phasing storm that moves up the coast, but again a weak low sliding well south.
The ONLY REASON it was hyped was because the GFS showed a storm coming up the east coast a few runs in a row, and without looking at the pattern in place, people took it as gospel and started making predictions of a nor’easter coming up the coast and making snow maps etc. While us that looked at the pattern knew very well this wasnt coming up the coast, as Steven DiMartino says, it’s not called modelology, its meteorology, and its called meteorology (:
Models are used for guidance and guidance only, but they have been so horrible this year, they aren’t even a good guide to go by. You have to look at what is actually happening, and at first, the models showed a similar situation to what is going on right now, the set up on the models NEVER changed, but yet they took the storm up the coast for a few days, so if you were keeping track of the models that’s a big red flag right there, especially when 1 day the GFS showed it OTS then 6 hours later showed a huge nor’easter coming up the coast, another red flag, especially with the SAME EXACT SET UP .
The only thing that changed was the northern disturbance which came through yesterday, it came through faster than first modeled, but im the end, 1st of all it didn’t move through fast enough to get rid of confluence completely and secondly the flow in the southern jet is still moving way to fast for a phase and there’s still no ridge in the west.
And finally a strong area of high pressure behind the one northern stream that came through yesterday, its forcing dry air into the region and pushing the precip well south, so even if the 1st northern disturbance moved faster, there was still a strong high pressure waiting behind it so there was just no way we were going to get an east coast storm out of this pattern, so next time instead of watching the models and living and dying by them, we must look at whats going on.
But im looking in the long range, and I dont think we will have to worry about anymore snow threats this year, long-range analysis coming soon!!