Alrighty now we look into the long range, the hype of cold and snow is slowly dying but theres still some out there that just wont give up for some reason, NO MARCH WILL NOT BE COLD AND SNOWY, November was supposed to be cold , instead it was one of the warmest on record, December was supposed to be cold, again one of the warmest on record (when I started to give up on the pattern change idea)see here https://northeasternnjwx.wordpress.com/2011/12/27/potent-strom-imminentmy-2nd-rant-on-why-no-one-should-expect-winter-weather-anytime-soon-ese-of-the-appalachians/ (Post from December 27th)
January same old story, hype of cold and snow, instead the 4th warmest on record for the US LOL
February again the same old story, hype of cold and snow leads to yet another warm month like REALLY WARM as in 7-10 degrees above average, probably another record warmth month.
I also should note that right now this is the 3rd warmest winter on record for NYC, with all the upcoming warmth I wouldn’t be surprised to jump to the 2nd place, 1st place is probably a stretch given we only have 30 days left but its definitely possible if this warm pattern reaches full potential!!
In this blog I am going to make it quite obvious WHY it will not be getting cold and snowy for the rest of winter (which is only about 30 more days anyway)
Right now the argument is , that there was a snow storm in October so there could easily be one in March or even April. The pattern was favorable in October though, the pattern we are going into is identical to November which if I recall correctly was WARM AND SNOWLESS. If the pattern was favorable , of course it could snow in March, but everything is going against us
STRIKE 1 : MJO phases
Here is the MJO forecast, this is why that snow storm down south was even possible, because phase 1-2 is very favorable, it was the only thing favorable too, it usually means cold and snow but being the convection is weak , it’s not influencing our weather to full potential and its effects are almost none, but it did affect us enough to give Virginia and NC 4-8 inches of snow.
Remember that phase 3 is the transition phase to a very warm pattern and phase 4-5 and even 6 is a very warm pattern, you can see we are clearly headed towards phase 3 and look at that we are transitioning into a warm pattern this week, there is certain people out there who are ignoring this and saying it will turn cold and snowy any way.
Lets look back to November, December and January and look at what phases we were in , 4-5-6 , very rarely does the east coast turn cold and snowy in phases 4-5-6 which is why I gave in December 23rd to be exact. The MJO controls where ridges and troughs are, of course the other teleconnections play a big role as well though
Like the NAO , the NAO could still be negative in phases 4-5-6. it is more favorable in 7-8-1 and even 2, (and didn’t even turn negative) which if it was negative it would’ve been at least cold even in phase 4-5-6 but the atmosphere isn’t favorable for blocking and still wont be in March
STRIKE 2 : NAO
This is the #1 teleconection for the NE and Mid Atlantic during the winter, positive means warmth and progressive usually and negative means cold and possibly snowy, well this winter hasent been cold and snowy in a positive phase, and we are expected to stay in a positive phase through early March, and there’s no sign that the forecast is wrong with a cooling stratosphere and cold waters around Greenland so this is a HUGEEEEEEEEEE factor AGAINST a cold and snowy March. Again the MJO in favorable phases can help the NAO go negative, we were just in favorable phases and it didn’t go negative so why would it go negative when everything is against that?
Okay so it wasnt overall a cold and snowy winter but there was bouts of wintry weather and cold, why is that?
Here is where STRIKE 3 comes into play
The Arctic Oscolation
Here is the observed AO forecast, our bouts of cold and some snow came in late January through Mid February, and look where we were, in a negative state, but look where we are now POSITIVE , where we were back in NOVEMBER, DECEMBER AND MOST OF JANUARY, when if you look back there was NO wintry weather and only a transient cold shot here and there that would last 1-2 days
STRIKE 3 : YOUR OUTTT , SEE YA LATER WINTER
Look where its going, up , up and up some more, going well positive , to the levels of November and December all over agin, when the AO is positive, you are not getting sustained cold and snow, anywhere in the country let alone the east coast, all you get is transient cold shots, otherwise overall warm exactly what we saw. And even when it was negative there was still no sustained cold because the NAO is positive so the pattern is progressive so any cold air that did and come down is shunted east real quick otherwise its warm Pacific air flooding the country but with the AO now positive again all the cold air is locked up in Canada again
These 3 things tell me WINTER IS OVER, with all these things going wrong, there is if any cold its transient, and very small chance for snow
But just to beat the dead horse a little bit more
STRIKE 4 : Falling PNA
The PNA was positive which meant there was a ridge in the west which lead to a trough trying to build into the east and again helped to give us whatever bouts of cold and snow there was the last few weeks, now its going negative again, which means the ridge is breaking down, as a matter of fact it’s basically gone already, and the pattern will turn zonal if not a trough will develop in the west, which in turn means a SE ridge will be able to develop and build up the coast, sounds similar to whats going to happen this upcoming week, and add in that we still have a weak west based La Nina and there is NOTHING to stop the SE ridge, there’s no blocking at all, the MJO says we are going into a warm pattern,the AO says we are going into a warm pattern, lets face it folks , we are going back into a pattern similar if not identical to November and December , which was very warm and snowless, WINTER IS OVER!!! If the EPO was negative it would make up for the PNA but the EPO is unfavorable too
Obviously I can’t completely rule out a snow event , but everything will have to go perfect and the OVERALL PATTERN will be warm and probably quite rainy too, as the SE ridge will direct storms from the southern jet stream on north bound up the eastern US.
So in summary, we have a positive NAO ,no blocking, we have a positive AO which means all the cold air is locked up north, and whatever does make it here will be weak and shunted east immediately. We have a falling PNA and dying western ridge, and the MJO is going unfavorable, along with a west based La Nina, this all spells SE RIDGE BABY!!
EVERYTHING AND I MEAN EVERYTHING , is unfavorable for cold and snow, this may be THE WORST pattern for cold and snow all winter, similar to November