After a short time of pretty calm , mild and clear weather, the active weather pattern from 2011 that made it the wettest year on record is returning.
The radar this evening shows the active weather pattern unfolding right before our eyes, there’s one disturbance impacting the NE US with clouds and some scattered rain/snow showers, a second disturbance over the great lakes region, a third disturbance in the northern Rockies and a 4th disturbance about to come into the US west coast, that’s the one to really watch but the rest of these will work together to make it a rather cloudy and wet week but also make it quite warm as well and they will be passing N & W of us as a SE ridge begins to build
For tonight, the weak disturbance will bring over cast skies, breezy SE winds and a few scattered rain/snow showers, not a big deal at all.
Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy as a second stronger disturbance and short wave ride through the NE, this will lead to more widespread showers and even steady rain for NJ and wet snow for the Poconos tomorrow night into Thursday evening
Here is the 12z GFS from this afternon, this image is Wednesday night/early Thursday morning and you can see over the NYC metro to the Poconos is a swath of moderate precipitation , for NYC to NW NJ this is rain but go north of that black and red dotted line and its a mix of rain and snow before all snow once you get a bit more north of there
Over the NYC , North NJ I expect all rain and .10-.25 , could be locally a bit more , this model shows .25-.50 but the disturbance doesnt look too impressive so im going to stay conservative and say widespread showers and once you get to extreme NW NJ and especially the Poconos snow will mix in, I don’t expect much accumulation if any as the snow will be mixed with rain and it will be very wet snow but maybe the highest elevation in the Poconos gets 1-2 inches of wet snow on grassy surfaces
This will be in and out, and not a huge deal, but a moderate rainfall event none the less, it should be all out of here by Thursday 10 am
The rest of the day will remain cloudy, but maybe a few peeks of sun and very warm conditions , with temperatures 58-65 degrees but if you look at the surface map you can see another disturbance is right behind this one, so I wouldn’t expect too much sunshine
Thursday night, a piece of southern stream energy will try to come north and phase with the northern stream disturbance, this is where things get a little cloudy though, (literally) , the GFS model does not have much of a phase so it’s basically just a cold front coming though with some moderate rainfall as the phase occurs just to our north, a bit to late to bring a huge storm here
Here is the GFS on Friday, you can see the low, and it does phase and start to get going and gives us a rainy Friday but it gets going a bit too late to give us anything real substantial, this specific run brings about .50 of QPF which is much more than previous runs which makes me think we are trending towards something like this:
Here is the Euro, this is what happens with an early phase, you get a powerhouse storm rapidly bombing out tracking N & E and a wind-blown rain and even some thunderstorms with a track to our west, other wise its heavy wind-blown rain
Here is the storm getting its act together and moving NE much sooner than the GFS shows it, this would be 1-2 inches of windblown rain, the Euro has been consistent also
Both these solutions are plausible, im going with a compromise, a bit stronger than the GFS but a but weaker than the Euro with a healthy storm rapidly bombing tracking N&W and I expect .50-1.50 inches of rain and strong winds out of the SE on Thursday night into Friday
As the storm pulls away Friday afternoon , it will still be bombing out so winds will be very strong out of the NW Friday once the storm passes regardless, could be gusts to 50-60 if it reaches full potential
Ill be keeping an eye, right now I expect a moderate to heavy rainstorm with increasing winds though. And there’s plenty more threats for rain/ storms going into next week so we will be kept on our toes with no end it sight to this active pattern as both the polar and sub tropical jets are getting very active!!