We finally have a significant storm to track, after several weeks of boring , dry, and mild weather
The NYC metropolitan area through the Poconos have seen a little bit of everything so far from this storm, a wintry mix over NYC , NE AND Central NJ of rain , sleet and wet snow overnight, it didnt accumulate to anything but if you were out late you got a wintry surprise. There was also weak thunderstorms associated with round 1 so some areas had lightning and thunder with a wintry mix near NYC. NW NJ and the Poconos got heavy wet snow that accumulated from 2-3 inches in Sussex county to 3-6 inches in the Poconos and Conneticut also got blasted with 2-5 inches of suprise snowfall , thundersnow was reported.
The first round is that band exiting to the NE , its also weakening because it is hitting high pressure but over our area it was much more intense, leading to .30-.50 of precipitation, more rain is developing to the W and to the SW. For most of the afternoon though it will be mainly dry with a few spotty showers out and about and cloudy skies with increasing winds as the low bombs out.
That line over West PA will swing east and intensify in response to the low intensifying, and another low is expected to form off the coast this afternoon which may help to enhance rainfall over NJ. Rain should start to pick up again between 3-5 pm and last till later tonight, thunderstorms will be possible and an additional quarter to half an inch is expected, locally more in thunderstorms. The warm front will be stuck to our south, probably getting no farther north than Philly because the track of the low is farther south than expected, so if theres any thunderstorms over NYC they should be weak, biggest threat for strong storms is South Jersey through Virginia, where temps will rise into the 60s 70s and even 80s in Virginia. But even in the Poconos and areas that saw accumulating snow, warm air will come in aloft and surface temps will rise into the mid 30s to mid 40s so rain is expected with round 2.
It’s a pretty significant rain event with totals ranging .50-1 inch but the main story will be tonight and tomorrow behind the bombing low pressure and that is wind
There are wind advisories out for most of NJ and East PA for winds of 15-30 gusts to 45-50 but along the coast there are High wind watches, for 25-35 mph winds with gusts up to 60!!! This includes NYC, Long Island all of eastern NJ. Starting tonight with round 2 of rain the winds will rapidly pick up out of the NE then shift NW and increase overnight, again winds 20-30 with gusts to 45-60 area wide, strongest winds along the coast. The ground will be wet so small trees may be blown over,and branches definitely will fall down with these kinds of winds and power outages possible.