We are now in the active pattern that I warned about a few weeks ago, and another major storm is on our door step for mid-week, and another for late week, in this post I focus on the mid-week one being it’s closer and is more likely to bring wintry weather to the area.
Just a quick overview of what to expect until then
Today, chilly and breezy, highs 39-46 with winds 10-15 mph, tonight , decreasing winds , clear and cold lows 23-32
Monday will be warm and sunny with highs 50-58 before a cold front comes through Monday night leading to a colder more seasonable air mass once again, lows 23-32
Tuesday will be much colder but still not really cold with highs 42-49, pretty seasonable overall as average high temps are rising rapidly now, lows 23-32, increasing clouds at night
Mid Week Storm – To Snow or Not to snow?
There is a significant storm coming mid-week, no doubt in my mind, there’s full model agreement. There is going to be a lot of moisture and precipitation to work with, but the set up will be good for overrunning, there will be a strong and cold high to our north and a warm front trying to come from the south, the warm air rides over the cold air, precipitation breaks out rapidly and could be intense, and that’s overrunning.
So the set up is good for what is called front end snows. The main low is tracking well west of us , or at least the primary will so it would more than likely change to rain or ice or both, depending on timing of transfer to the coast which there is also full agreement on, a low tries to cut into the lakes but runs into that big high pressure to the N&E and transfers its energy to the coast.
Back to front end snow/ice though, that strong high pressure is key here to how much wintry precipitation falls. The stronger it is the more stubborn the cold air will be to leave, models are starting to catch on to this high pressure, with the latest trend to bring a widespread couple inches of snow on the front end snows to NYC points N&W because of overrunning , before the change over to sleet and eventually heavy rain as eventually the warm air would win out , especially with an ESE wind ahead of the storm passing to the west.
So with that said , the latest GFS snow map is posted below, the NAM and GGEM agree, and the European is just an all out winter storm with all snow and ice for NYC points N&W
So you can see a general 2-4 inches of front end snow before a change over to rain on the GFS and again most of the recent models agree on NYC and north Jersey getting snow on the front end of this. GFS , NAM and GGEM all do this but change it to rain eventually because of a late transfer to the coast, which is what im siding with at this time, front end snow, to sleet to rain BUT…….
The European disagrees, and says the transfer to the coast is much sooner, so we get the front end snow, it briefly changes to ice in the NYC metro because of warm air aloft that comes in briefly then changes back to snow once the transfer to the coast takes place, giving north Jersey significant snow and ice.
Theres a lot of time , (relatively speaking) to watch this and see, im siding with snow to rain but we have to watch for a trend colder towards the Euro or even a trend warmer, the placement and strength of the Canadian high is what it comes down to because nothing else supports wintry precipitation.
I expect some snow that changes over to heavy rains though, if this is all rain, which is becoming less likely, then we are talking 1-1.5 inches of rain, if there’s some snow its a few inches of snow followed by .50-.75 of rain, which is what im thinking.
The next storm system is Friday into Saturday, theres also agreement on this, right now modeled as a strong low tracking into the great lakes, bringing a power ful cold front and heavy rain and wind, ill watch this storm as the week progresses, I expect it to remain a rain storm but could be significant rainfall.