A major storm is on the way , developing in the Southern Plains as we speak.
This low will track towards the western Great Lakes tomorrow and bring a blizzard to the upper Mid west , which surprisingly many areas there have less snow than we do for the season!!!
This low will bring a warm front north bound, meanwhile, there will be a strong high to the north-northeast, which will send down and hold in cold air, especially N&W of NYC. We will have a powerful overrunning event which I explained yesterday, simply warm air over-riding cold air producing heavy precipitation, rain, snow , sleet or freezing rain, this is due to the cold high to the north holding cold air in place.
The placement of this high will determine EVERYTHING. Models since yesterday have trended much warmer, because the high has shifted N&E on the models, which in turn cannot hold the cold air in and as a matter of fact leads to more of an ESE wind driving warm atlantic air into the coastal plain. I could see this happening easily, where the wintry precipitation will be confined to the Poconos, BUT I have seen wayy to many of these events turn colder and more wintry than expected to simply give up 48 hours out, and right now im buying into a colder more wintry solution because of that
Dont get me wrong here, I don’t expect anything significant for the NYC metro, but I don’t think it’s all rain either like most models are saying.
Here is the beginning stage of the storm for us, overrunning precipitation is breaking out to our west, but notice the high position, its to our NE which IS NOT GOOD if you want significant icing or snow S & E of the Poconos, and the primary lows over the Great Lakes leads to a SE wind but still that high is in an ok spot to hold in cold air for most of the forecast area to see some wintry precipitation
Here is the height of the storm, this is heavy rain NYC points SSW but snow and or icing in CT through the Poconos, heaviest precip out of this storm will be in areas of rainfall luckily. The precip and amounts are modeled niceley but I think they are too warm
This is the latest NAM which brings .50 N&W to .75-1.25 NYC points SSW, with that said here is my preliminary precip type map
Green- All rain, although maybe some sleet pellets to start but other wise rain and significant rain at that, 1-1.5 inches, weak thunderstorms possible in southern areas
Pink area, Mainly rain but I expect a brief start of snow and sleet, could be a coating to MAYBE 1 inch at the very most, significant rainfall of .75-1.25 expected
Light Blue- Snow – Sleet – ZR Rain-Rain – I expect light accumulations of snow 1-3 inches, and sleet, some icing is also possible, significant rainfall of .50-.75 expected
Moderate blue – Snow- Sleet – ZR – Rain- Moderate snow accumulations, 2-4 inches of snow and sleet then up to .10 of freezing rain / ice, moderate rainfall of .25-.50 possible
Dark Blue- Heavy snow – sleet to freezing rain- Moderate to heavy snow accumulations 3-7 inches of snow and sleet, .10-.25 of freezing rain and ice possible, little to no rain expected
Notice this is a Preliminary outlook so changes are likely and this is just to give a general idea on what to expect for your area!!