The NJ Weather Authorites Spring forecast/ tab will be posted on the top main page until the Summer Forecast comes around!!
Well finally after a horridly disgusting, nightmare, warm , and boring winter, thank God spring is right around the corner!! NYC looks to end the season with 7-8 inches, NE/Central NJ 10-15 inches and NW NJ 15-20 inches, WELL BELOW NORMAL although it couldve been worse too lol
The days are getting longer, warm air masses getting warmer, cold air masses less cold and more transient (in and out quickly) and average temperatures rising day after day.
And with that here is the SPRING 2012 Forecast!!!
Its pretty simple really, I basically expect more of the same!! Good new for those who like warmth and thunderstorms , not good if you like cold , rain and dreary days
Here is the NAO forecast , its been positive since August and quite frankly I see nothing that would change that any time soon, waters around Greenland are below normal which isn’t good if you want blocking (and a cold rainy spring). Also the stratosphere is cold again, which favors low pressure over Greenland rather than High pressure ( high pressure is blocking)
Which brings me to the next :
Most of the winter, this was positive as you can see, this means the polar vortex was stuck in Canada, which means so was the cold air, and it was noticeable with November and December having record warmth. When it was negative we had some cold shots and some snow but now it’s clearly positive again, and there’s nothing pointing to this going negative and the Polar Vortex coming south, so this spring I expect most of the cold air to be stuck well north of us, and whatever does make it down here will be transient and quickly in and out with no blocking !!!
The forecast is for it to remain positive and possibly go VERY positive, this all means warmth for the Eastern US!! There will be another upper level low forming over Alaska which will make sure the AO stays positive
Now over to the Pacific
The MJO is now circling towards warm phases one again for the Eastern US (3-4-5)
La Nina is weakening but it’s still there and its west based, which is good if you want a warm spring, because with a +AO and + NAO , a SE ridge will be able to develop!! Thats when a high pressure system sets up dominantly over the SE US or just off the coast which could also be called a Bermuda high, and the circulation around this would lead to a warm SW wind coming up the east coast!!
All of these factors tell me its going to be a very warm spring, with temperatures above average, a dominant SE ridge although not too overpowering with a weak and weakening La Nina
The stratosphere is cold, much colder than normal which supports a cold upper troposphere. which supports an upper level low over Alaska, and the circulation around that would flood the country with warmth
I expect this to be an ACTIVE Spring Season. We have a very active Pacific Jet stream and an active sub tropical jet, which should only become more active as la Nina dissipates. This means there will be disturbance after disturbance coming in off the Pacific, and with a SE or Bermuda High, these will be able to turn up the Eastern US
I expect the dominant storm track to be to our North and WEST , basically from PA to the Great Lakes, due to the SE ridge, lows passing west of us and no blocking means warm front from these lows will be able to move through the area no problem, so we would get rain with the warm front then once it passes north, we rapidly warm up, then that sets up for thunderstorms later with the cold front.
This brings me back to the AK Upper low/ Vortex, air with the AO being positive, and an upper low over Alaska, air masses behind these storms will be from the Pacific , not the Polar regions as the circulation around the upper low and the screaming Pacific Jet will keep the cold air north, and flood the country with Pacific warmth but also an inundation of storm systems.
Also, with a cold stratosphere and upper troposphere , and good support for a warmer lower troposphere, it could be a VERY INTERESTING severe weather season with a temperature gradient like that!! This would support a very active thunderstorm season
So , in summary, I expect a WARM spring, with temperatures above to well above normal, maybe some hot spells even once we get into April with average to above normal precipitation