Its becoming increasingly obvious that after this cold spell, a serious warm pattern will be developing, not only for us but most of the country!!!
Starting Tuesday, a MASSIVE RIDGE looks to develop across much of the country
Nothing new here, NAO is forecast and will remain positive, like its been since August, nothing supports it going negative as the pattern is just way to fast moving and will remain so
We are starting to get into that time of year where the Polar Vortex naturally starts moving north and doesent influence our weather as much, but still in march and April it could move south occasioanlly and make for rather cold and wintry weather, but that will not be the case the next few weeks
The AO is very positive and will remain so, basically means the Polar Vortex will be stuck in Northern Canada, so the cold air will also be stuck way north again do to a very progressive pattern and certain things going on in the Pacific
So now we know the AO and NAO will remain positive, nothing new there, been dominantly like this since November , so from that we also know there is no blocking and will not be any time soon, and the Polar Vortex will remain wel to the north, so theres nothing to block and stop a SE ridge from developing, and that will be happening very soon
But over to the Pacific we go :
MJO (Madden Jullien Oscilation)
You can see we are are in Phase 3 heading towards phase 4, phase 3 is the transition for us from cold to warm
Phase 4 supports the kind of pattern I expect coming up which is warmth (above normal) for much of the country, Phases 5-6 also support warmth for much of America and this is just one factor that I believe will not confine ridging to the SE but much of the country
The Eastern Pacific Oscillation is going negative, which means a upper low and cold anomilies will be forming over Alaska, and a trough down the west Coast, this usually means ridiging through most of the country besides the Rockies points west, if not the immediate west coast. Basically this means a trough will be developing in the Eastern/NE Pacific which in turn will pump up a HUGE rodge across most of the country
The ENSO is still La Nina , and is now west based, the la nina is weakening but its still there and west based supports a ridge in the Southern US
So basically, starting Wednesday I expect the month of March and possibly through much of the spring, I expect a ridge of high pressure to dominate much of the country, especially East of the Rockies, a screaming Pacific Jet will bring occasional disturbances and cold fronts and depending on the ridge whther its weaker or stronger will determine how far south these track.
Here is Wednesday and you can the ridge ( bulge in the jet stream) starting to develop over the eastern half of the Nation
On Thursday warmth will suge up the east coast, but you can see a small trough / disturbance coming from the west, its a cold front that will bring some unsetlled weather Friday into Saturday but then ……
Here is Saturday, that trough is on its way out already without a block, and you cann see the trough developing in the East Pacific ( -EPO) and that trough is pumping up a ridge throughout much of the country, theres another storm developing down south that may make it rather unsettled next week but more details on that later
Here is Sunday , that cut off low is moving north but the main thing here is the massive ridge, notice much of the country is very warm
This model would go out to next Wednesday and it shows a massive ridge across the whole country still dominating.
So we clearly have a very warm pattern developing, precipitation will be determined on just how strong this ridge gets, it it gets really strong , storm systems will pass well to our NW and not influence us much, but if its weaker, it could be quite active, but the main theme is WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE