The warm pattern that I have been “warning” about and based my spring forecast on, is clearly developing and is here to stay for quite some time.
A very nice weekend is coming up!1
Saturday- Sunny and chilly , highs 39-47 light west winds , a little chilly at night with lows 23-30
Sunday- This is when the warm spring pattern starts to become established, temperatures moderating with highs 56-63 lows 34-42
WARMTH TAKING OVER
Sunday , an upper level low will develop and cut off over Texas, and in balance , an area of high pressure will develop off the east coast which will set the stage for a VERY WARM week.
The upper low will remain west and far enough west to have VERY LITTLE impact to our area due to the strong SE ridge developing. The SE ridge will keep everything west , in the Plains and Midwest, and very little will make it east bound
From Texas to Chicago, WATCH OUT , in this developing pattern eastern Texas north through the Great Lakes are in what I like to call the “rain train” they will be on the west side of the SE ridge, so storm systems will develop over the southern Plains and move due NNE into the Great Lakes, leading to rain storm after rainstorm for these areas the next 2 weeks
As for us, we should remain OVERALL pretty dry, a few of these storm systems may try to bring a cold front through our area but with the SE ridge and high pressure dominating the eastern US these cold fronts will weaken rapidly coming east, leading to just a chance for a few showers here and there, these chances could be quite often as it looks like a very active pattern for the US but most of the rainfall will stay well west of us.
Believe it or not, DROUGHT may become a concern very soon, both January and February bought less than 50% of our average rainfall, and so far March is on the same track. If this SE ridge sticks around which frankly I don’t see any support saying it wont be sticking around, we will start to get very dry, which will set off a chain reaction for the rest of the spring/summer season.
You see, from now through next autumn, most of our precipitation comes from thunderstorms and convection and cold fronts, we are starting to exit the time of year where we see all out rain storms as the polar jet is now shooting north bound, even faster than usual thanks to the Eastern Ridge. Thunderstorms feed off of the moisture on/in the ground and in lower levels of the troposphere (where we live), so if the lower levels are very dry, the thunderstorms along these cold fronts will have no moisture to work when approaching our area with and they will weaken and dissipate rapidly moving east, giving us little in the way of rainfall, so you can see how this may be a problem going into the spring and summer months. This is an ongoing cycle that would be very hard to break, we would need a massive rainstorm to really moisten the ground back up.
So this SE ridge could mean trouble going into the summer, sure it means more nice and hot days but it also means DROUGHT and lack of water, farmers problems, dried out plants, fires ETC
Now what supports this huge SE Ridge?
Just about everything does
Starting with the NAO again nothing new, expected to remain postive through the rest of March, no blocking what so ever to speak of and no support for blocking what so ever, so here is factor number one, nothing to supress the SE ridge.
The AO will remain positive also so all our cold air and Polar Vortex is stuck WAYYYYY NORTH in northern Canada, so more support for this SE ridge to build up the east coast
The MJO is now in phase 4, phases 4-5-6 are warm phases for us and all support the SE ridge, not to mention that we still have west based La Nina. Its going through all the warm phases which will take a long time, we don’t have to worry about the MJO going into cold phases any time soon
Eastern Pacific Oscillation
The EPO is now positive and there’s a ridge axis over Hawaii, which means there’s a trough along and JUST off the west coast, which supports a ridge through much of the country but especially east of the Rockies
Everything supports a VERY WARM and potentially VERY DRY spring, we have to watch El Nino development but that wont effect our weather for a long time to come.
Just to show what this pattern will look like , starting Sunday
So you can see the upper low developing down south, and clearly a ridge building up the east coast and warmth throughout the eastern 98% of America besides Washington and Oregon, but as the SE ridge builds and the pattern becomes more amped, more of a trough will build into the west coast
Tuesday the upper low will move through the great lakes and drag a weakening cold front with just some showers and the trough building down the west coast is enhancing a ridge up the east coast
Wednesday, now the warmth is really streaming north, another disturbance is developing down south which will bring another chance for showers on Thursday but very warm both days
Going into next weekend, that cold front that came through Thursday brings down slightly colder air (by slightly i mean 50s) for Friday and Saturday but you can see another huge ridge in the middle of the country moving east
Here is Sunday and the SE ridge is building big time, verbatim this is highs in the 70s and lower 80s!! but this is long-range, the point here is that we are entering a VERY WARM pattern and it’s not going away anytime soon, so enjoy this early spring weather!!!