As you all know , we have been in an amazingly warm pattern this March, many days in the 60s , 70s and 80s in our southern areas, and after today,starting this weekend we moderate into the 60s then that will continue through this upcoming week with many days in the 70s and maybe up to around 80 in spots that havent got there yet by midweek.
But we should know that it should be nearly impossible to stay 15-30 degrees above normal for much longer, as nice as its been, almost summer like, we are still in early spring so it just wouldnt make sense to stay as warm as we have been and now I do indeed see a potential end to this warm tranquil pattern that we have been in this spring and really since November, key word here is POTENTIAL , nothing is for sure being this potential end is still 10 days away or so
Ok so what tells me there may be an end in sight to this rediculous warmth and tranquility lateley?
Factor # 1 North Atlantic Oscillation
As you can see, the NAO has been positive since November , and thus all the warmth we have had. Notice though, the red lines are forecasts from different GFS ensemble models, and there’s a GENERAL down trend to eventually neutral/slightly negative by months end besides a spike this upcoming week, thus the 70s to low 80s.
The European model, the best out there and its weeklies ( shows a summary week by week has a modest NAO block developing by the end of March too so that’s one piece of the puzzle to put together
Factor # 2 PNA (Pacific North American Teleconnection)
This is actually the big one that has my attention most, the NAO has given us false hope all winter but this one is true observations, and as of today the PNA is positive and rising, this is DEADLY to the SE ridge
The forecast is for the PNA to remain neutral to positive, this of course means a ridge ia building in the Western US .
If a ridge of high pressure builds in the west, the current SE ridge would retrograde west from off the east coast to more towards the western ridge nad towards the highest anomalies, in turn the NE US would be under more of a NW flow instead of SW flow and we would be more influenced by Canada
And finally the thing that may support all of this
LA NINA IS DEAD , the Pacific is now in a neutral state headed towards El Nino, first, a neutral state in the Pacific would support a weaker ridge in the center of the country rather than a powerhouse ridge off the SE coast like we are about to see this week.
This would by no means be a cold pattern , but more towards normal or slightly above if it happens in the first place, this is just a bunch of potential here, the main thing this would do is make our pattern more active as storms would track further east and as the Sub tropical jet becomes more active as the Pacific warms up. So we shall see about this potential pattern shift, I wouldn’t call it a flip, it’s basically just the SE ridge shifting further west leading to more normal conditions , still above normal I think just not excessive warm and more potential for cold shots here and there and a more active pattern as well. A pattern flip would be the SE ridge breaking down, the NAO producing blocking and changing from warm and dry to cold and stormy, that will not be the case here.
I still think we stay in a warmer pattern anyway, there’s just so much warm air around and the AO is forecast to remain positive which means the real cold will be locked up north, the key thing im watching is a more active pattern and a flip from excessive warmth to slightly above normal , and plus a ridge further west without a -AO just means warmth riding up the western side of the ridge then circulating and coming due east while cooling off slightly due to an eventual NW flow
POTENTIAL is the key word here!!!
Until then enjoy the warmth, and ill keep and eye and update on this potential pattern shift to end March