The very warm weather continues, today it was completely overcast and many areas still hit or exceeded 70 , especially central and Southwest NJ along with SE PA and Philly metro area, NYC was mainly in the upper 60s which is still impressive for this time of year being it’s nearly 15 degrees above normal and it was cloudy!!!
The stubborn clouds were due to a persistent SE wind ( due to high pressure to our NE) that bought in moist and cool air in from the atlantic which collided with the very warm air mass in place causing fog and clouds for the whole forecast area today. Areas of New York State through Maine hit and exceeded 80 today.
High pressure is shifting south and will settle off of the southeast coast, and winds will shift from SE to SW tonight. Some fog will develop tonight but not nearly as much as last night due to a drier and warmer SW wind. Lows wont fall too much tonight, with lows 50-60 with 50 along the coast and lower 50s over NE PA and NW NJ to mid to upper 50s else where
With the SW wind there wont be as much of an influence from the Atlantic, plus high pressure in control will lead to a quick clearing of any fog tomorrow morning besides along the immediate NJ coast and LI coast, especially Long Island where it will stick around longer
Highs tomorrow will be very warm, from upper 60s and lower 70s along the coast, upper 60s on the LI coast and low 70s along the NJ coast and interior Long Island, along I95 mid to upper 70s are expected, probably more like upper 70s and upper 70s to low 80s around 80 west of I95
Tomorrow night high pressure will continue to slow shift south, wind will turn more WSW which will cancel any influence from the Atlantic so little to no fog is expected with lows 50-60 degrees, 50 along the coast and northeast PA to 55-60 along I95
Friday high pressure will remain off the coast, with a WSW wind and another day of very warm temperatures, with similar highs to those of Thursday
Theres trouble brewing for this weekend though , of course we get the nice warm weather during the week and the rainy cool weather during the weekend
First thing that catches your eye is probably the monster low pressure and spin over Texas and Oklahoma, that’s what is going to impact us this weekend. Right now its moving more north due to the high pressure off the coast but as that shifts south and another high builds over southern Canada the flow will turn WSW .
So the storm will start moving NE before starting to turn ENE Friday afternoon and night SLOWLY. We are in a very amplified and slow-moving pattern so this storm will take its time both getting here and leaving
Clouds will increase from SW to NE on Friday night as this upper level low starts moving east, Saturday should start out dry and it looks as if most of Saturday will be dry, it will be cloudy and much cooler and winds shift to the ESE with an increasing chance of showers in the afternoon
The exact track will as always determine just how much rain we get
We have full model agreement that the upper low will track to Ohio and rain will begin to fill in Saturday afternoon and evening but what it does after that is still not set in stone.
High pressure will build down from Canada forcing the upper low to transfer south and transfer into a cut off surface low pressure
Its transferring south and rain is overspread the area by early Sunday morning
It then begins to build into a coastal low, this is where things start becoming a bit confusing
The Canadian model and Euro both have the coastal low coming up the coast and enhancing rainfall Sunday through Monday
The GFS however is a bit further SE keeping most of the coastal storms precip over DC/ BALT / DELEWARE and Southern NJ, being the GFS has a SE bias I am siding with the Euro and Canadian
So basically , chance of showers will increase through Saturday, and become widespread overnight and perhaps steady-going into Sunday morning, it may then become more showery and maybe we get a break Sunday afternoon as the low transfers south then if the coastal comes close enough to the coast, rain will fill back in by Sunday night, then taper to showers on Monday
Without the coastal low rainfall would range from .25-.5o but if the coastal low impacts us 1-2 inches is possible, with 1.5-2 inches possible from DC-BALT and Southern NJ to around 1 inch getting up to NYC
So enjoy the warmth because it looks very unsettled, cool and wet this weekend, but we kind of need this rain too