After abnormal and even extreme warmth this month so far and really abnormal warmth since last November, we appear to be going into a regime of more normal weather for this time of year, to maybe even below normal at times, but mainly looks like normal with times of above and times of below normal temperature wise
So let’s get into it
You see that big storm in the middle of the country? It’s very impressive looking and will be the start to our pattern change if you will, I would call it more of a pattern shift not really a change but anyway, this upper level low will move ENE which will in turn weaken and suppress the SE ridge
This storm system will make for a rather wet and cloudy weekend and will also force the SE ridge responsible for the 15-30 degree above normal temps to the South
This same storm will also build a block over the North Atlantic, whether its temporary or not will remain to be seen and will make some what of a difference, but this temporary block will force the high off the coast to retrograde and move west from off the SE coast to the middle of the country and perhaps eventually the western US
This is the NAO forecast and you can see a dip negative early next week, that’s the upper level low that will form a block, and again force the SE ridge to move west and no longer be a SE ridge
The PNA shows this nicely, the ridge goes west and the PNA going positive means a ridge will be building in the west and moving west and this will lead to a bit of a trough in the NE US just because of the big bulge in the jet stream to our west that will develop and the trough over the Atlantic that will retrograde west as the ridge retrograde west
You can see the dip negative and then a lot of uncertainty, but this tells me some of the cold air over Canada will try to come south.
Here is what I expect, a trough along the west coast, a ridge in the west/central US and a bit of a trough over the NE US, im thinking we return to normal temperatures in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s, but if we get a decent west based block like some models are hinting we will have times of below normal temperatures but for now I will assume the NAO doesnt go too negative and we will just go to normal temperatures overall
I also expect a more active pattern, with a ridge like that instead of disturbances being forced well west of us like it has been lately because of the SE ridge, instead they will move SE into our area from over-riding the ridge, so I expect some strong cold fronts and even some potential coastal lows in a pattern like this but the rain event this weekend looks to be the start of a more active pattern , we are getting very dry around here so we could use more rainfall.