Theres no doubting it now, we are now in a cooler and more normal weather pattern after a very warm month so far, which will end up being the warmest March on record for NYC, reality is setting back in that it still indeed is March.
The shift to a cooler pattern I warned about in my spring forecast ( https://northeasternnjwx.wordpress.com/spring-2012-forecast/ ) is indeed happening, a bit earlier than I thought but not too far off
This upcoming week will be average overall and budding plants and trees may be in trouble, especially Monday and Tuesday nights
Today, cloudy with a chance of showers , chilly and breezy with highs in the lower to mid 50s and lows tonight in the upper 30s interior to mid 40s along the coast with clearing skies
Also a cold front will come through which will make things windy tomorrow with highs in the lower to mid 50s, around average
Tomorrow night will bring back a little taste of winter, with high pressure in control, clear skies and weakening winds, radiation cooling conditions will be in place so lows will drop from 20 over our NW interior to around freezing along the immediate coast, this could mean trouble for the sprouting plants and leaves and flowers that have all come out because of all the recent warmth
Tuesday will be around to slightly below average with highs from the mid 40s NW to low 50s along the coast and lows will range from the mid 20s NW to mid 30s along the immediate coast
Wednesday will be a bit warmer as a cold front drops south and a SW wind develops briefly with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s along the coast and lows in the upper 30s interior to mid 40s along the coast, a few showers will be possible through the day along with mostly cloudy conditions
Thursday and Friday we go back into the 50s with highs both days ranging from low 50s NW to upper 50s along the coast, again around average with lows from the lower 30s NW to low 40s along the coast
Here is the NAO forecast
This is what we were looking for 2 months ago, a negative NAO and blocking , its coming just in time for spring!!!
The SE ridge has now retrograded west and with blocking this will lead to a trough over the NE US and a ridge in the center of the country with another trough along the west coast
There are signs that we may get even cooler in the longer range though
There are signs that the ridge over the center of the country will shift west even more leading to a + PNA ridge in the west leading to a deeper and broader trough across much of the northern half of the country, and with a -NAO it just looks like we are heading into a long-lasting pattern of seasonal temperatures with times of below normal temperatures dominantly, it could also become more active but that’s something I will worry about when the time comes, we need rainfall so it wouldn’t be all bad.
Point here is though, I wouldn’t expect 70s and 80s anytime soon, sure there will be days where its warmer than others, maybe in the 60s ahead of cold fronts and all but overall this pattern is seasonable which is 50s overall and if it unfolds like it could, we may go below average within the next 2 weeks.