After we enjoy this beautiful Easter Weekend a pretty big cool down is coming for next week, just in time for many spring breaks.
Monday a cold front will drop south , very far south and bring clouds and a chance of showers. This cold front will lead to a deep trough building down the east coast. The -NAO will form a strong upper level low over New England and the Canadian Maritime which will help the trough remain sustained for most of the week and also lead to unsettled weather conditions
Here is Tuesday the trough is building down, and the upper low is bombing out over SE Canada making sure this trough doesent leave
Wednesday the trough builds further south, colder air is coming south and the upper low is in the same spot sending down disturbances from NW to SE which will lead to a slight chance of showers Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday along with mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Now the upper troposphere will be VERY COLD so once night-time hits and that cold air comes back down and lows dip into the 20s in NW NJ, NE PA snow , yes snow is likely to mix in with these disturbances
Thursday the trough is still locked in and some moisture and disturbances and working down leading to the chance of showers and snow mixing in N & W suburbs
Friday the trough again still in place the there’s still some pesky disturbances roaming around so the threat of isolated showers continues, but notice the upper low is moving out so a ridge is starting to build east. and a strong storm system developing in the Plains may act as a kicker to kick the trough out so next weekend could be mild again but im not sure how long this ridge will last and how stong it will be
The MJO doesent support a ridge in the east at all let alone a ridge like this
I could definitely see a warm up don’t get me wrong but I don’t see a long-lasting sustained ridge like the latest Euro is showing, I like the GFS better, its goes along more with my thinking and the MJO and NAO and a roller coaster ride with no dominant troughs or ridges , a very transient pattern although it wouldn’t surprise me to see troughs and cool downs more dominant than ridges and warm ups given the fact that La Nina is gone, the Pacific is warming rather rapidly and the MJO is remaining in the relatively cooler phases. But overall La Nina was so long-lasting its influences are still lingering a bit which is leading to a weakening but yet still stong polar jet stream which is keeping the NAO block weak and transient which in turn is keeping the pattern moving and progressive .
So in summary, warm and nice weekend then a cool and unsettled week with temperatures at and below normal with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s NW Burbs like NE PA to NW NJ lows in the mid 20s to low 30s and some rain and snow showers at times, for the rest highs in the low 50s to mid 50s and lows in the mid to upper 30s with a chance of showers just about everyday although slight chances followed by a potential warm up next weekend.