NJ WEATHER AUTHORITY IS NOW IN STORM WATCH MODE FOR A POTENTIAL MAJOR NOREASTER IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
We are finally starting to get some model agreement on this weekends storm. The GFS and NAM which were eastern outliers are now trending west bound, with tonight’s NAM showing several inches of rain!!
Here is whats going to happen: A developing cold front in the Mid west will come east slowly over the next 48 hours, and will form a line of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon and night, with small areas of low pressure riding the front. Some storms could be strong with even slight chance of severe as MU CAPE VALUES look very high. Locally heavy rain is expected but this is not the main storm !!!
An area of low pressure will form along the southern side of the front and will try to ride the cold front up the coast, while phasing with the northern stream disturbance responsible for the cold front. I said yesterday that blocking over the North Atlantic should lead to a proper phase and major storm and low and behold, the Euro, NAM, CMC, UKMET have a major nor’easter and the GFS is now phasing faster and trending west . This phasing will cause the trough to turn negative which will lead to the storm actually turning NW into the NE US, right now the main question is when does this happen?
Im gonna post images from the NAM because the European looks exactly the same
Here is the cold front coming through on Saturday into Sunday with showers and thunderstorms but notice the blob of rain over Florida, that is the main event
Here comes the storm up the coast and developing off the SE Coast, there could be a break in between the cold front and the coastal storm on Sunday
The storm moves due north and rain quickly fills back in and wind with the rapidly developing low
Then the trough turns negative and the low actually begins to move NW and heavy rains fill in from SE to NW along with a lot of wind on Monday
Heres the final frame of the NAM and very heavy rains are over the area, the European and UKMET and NOGAPS look exactly the same, and the GFS is trending this way
Total QPF through hour 84
Here it is widespread 2-4 inches and the storm is only at its peak at this point!! Taken to the end this would result several inches of rain, again the Euro is the same track but even stronger!!!
Im gonna be watching this closeley, the key is timing of the phase!!! We can count on a major rain event the question is when does the storm take that turn NW
Areas in Green I expect a widespread .50-2 inches
And the yellow areas have potential for 3+ inches although it depends on timing of the phase