STORM MODE CONTINUES, ALL POSTS WILL BE DAILY AND ON THE INCOMING NOR’EASTER
After months of dull and boring weather , a powerful nor’easter is on the way!!
It all starts with that cold front. That cold front will come east slowly and begin to impact us tomorrow afternoon and night with showers and thunderstorms
Notice the heavy rains breaking out over Eastern Texas and also over Florida, low pressure is starting to develop along the Gulf Coast, that will eventually be our noreaster.
Here is tomorrow night, the cold front is impacting the area and low pressure is forming over the Southeast US
The NAM and others is a bit more aggressive with the front but the main point is showers and thunderstorms will fill in tomorrow afternoon and especially night. Theres probably going to be a small break early Sunday morning between the cold front and nor easter
The area of low pressure will ride the front northbound Sunday and rain will fill back in along with increasing winds as our low pressure phases with the polar jet stream and intensifies
The worst of the storm will come Sunday night through Monday with heavy rains and strong winds, along with coastal flooding and some minor flooding possible, this will be an intense storm, we are talking somewhere in the 977-985 mb range which is the strength of a strong tropical storm.
It then proceeds to do something we don’t see to often, there’s a full phase of both jets and the intensification process leads to the a negative tilted trough, which means its orientation is SE to NW , so the storm then proceeds to actually move NW into our area
Here is my forecast track and map
Green area – This area I expect Moderate impact with some gusty winds at times, especially as the storm passes NW and intensifies and moderate to heavy rainfall with a general .50-1.50 locally 2 inches , some snow may mix in highest elevations
Yellow area- Moderate to major impact, this includes some gusty winds, and heavy rainfall amounts of 1.5-2.5 with up to 3 inches in spots
Orange area- In this area I expect MAJOR impact from the storm , this includes rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches locally 4 maybe even up to 5 in spots, strong winds of 20-40 mph gusts to 50-60 along the immediate coast and coastal flooding with a strong on shore flow
This is what my thinking as of tonight, my final call will come out tomorrow with a very in depth blog!!!