What was expected to be a big warm up by many is now turning out to be a not so impressive 1 day warm up for a majority of the forcast area, especially coastal areas.
That high pressue off of Maine is the warm weather lovers enemy right now, that is not only driving in a ESE wind and a cool marine airmass but its also blockin the warm front from moving East and crossing over our area
You can see the set up pretty clearly, while many sit currently in the 70s and 80s, our area sits in the 40s and 50s with a raw Easterly wind, this can also be blamed on a negative NAO block , which I will go into with my May forecast
Meanwhile We had 2 disturbances come through the last 2 days and dump rain on our area and another is on the way for later tonight into tomorrow
Our rainfall from today is now off the coast but you can see more showers and thunderstorms developing in PA , those will come east later tonight into tomorrow. I’m not expecting thunderstorms because of the cool and stable marine air mass in place but scattered to widespread showers can be expected very late tonight going into Thursday.
The high pressure off of Maine will start to give in tomorrow so the warm front will creep east slowly, most likely over taking our western areas, such as E and SE PA , SW NJ and Delaware areas, so moderating temperatures tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 7os over East PA and mid 70s to around 80 over SW NJ , Philly area and Delaware, showers with isolated thunderstorms possible in these areas, could be strong thunderstorms over Eastern PA in the afternoon
Meanwhile the rest of NJ , NYC , Long Island and CT will still be NE of the warm front, a continued ESE wind, and showers will hold temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s for highs, lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s
A widespread .10-.25 can be expected, up to half-inch in thunderstorms
Friday the warm front should cross the rest of the region, but a cold front wont be far behind so areas that were stuck in the 50s (NYC, NJ, LI, CT) will only reach the low to upper 70s while the rest of the region will bake in the 80s and even 90s in the DC area , strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible for everyone but especially inland, any storms will occur in the afternoon after some morning showers.
Friday into Saturday:
The cold front will move slowly through the area Friday afternoon through Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms , then a cool down takes hold going into next week as a rdge builds into the west and trough drops into the eastern US