Here is the current radar, we are clearly in an active pattern, a warm front just passed through with some light to moderate rain now somw showers and thundershowers are filling in behind it, then the cold front is developing over Ohio as a strong low presure tracks into the eastern Great lakes
All of this mess will move East and Northeast theough the area tonight through tomorrow with periods of showers and thunderstorms, with the most being in our nothern sections, less the further S & E you go.
Images courtesy of Penn State EWALL
Here we are going into later tonight and showers and thunderstorms are widespread through the area, especially Northern sections and the cold front is begining to swing east, and tonight temperatures wont fall much so what you see now is what you get
Late tomorrow moring and early afternoon we should catch a break as we will be behind the warm front and in front of the cold front, it wont last long as the cold front swings east though. Highs should be rather mild also , we are looking for mid 60s to low 70s
Going into later tomorrow afternoon and evening showes and storms should overspread the area again, with the most rain again being over northern sections, no severe weather is expected as cloud cover will be abundant but I cant rule out a strong storm, especially away from the coast as this is a rather strong cold front.
There should be another break late tomrrow night into Wednesday morning but the cold front will then stall or move very slowly along the coast, and an area of low pressure will try to form along it and move NE, and depending on exactly where it tracks will determine if rainfall is enhanced along the coast and rain fills back in Wednesday or if the front moves a tad to far east then the rain will remain off the coast
The latest GFS says rain fills back in Wednesday but the NAM model says most of it remains just off the coast and just some showers fill back in, it will depend on movement of the cold front, for now I expect showers to fill in if your NJ points east again Wednesday through Thursday morning, with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows in the 50s area wide
Total rainfall through the period should range from 1/3 of an inch to 1.5 inches, least west most east
Finally we will begin to clear out Friday which will lead to a great weekend with sunny skies and seasonably mild temperatures as high pressure builds into the region, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Friday through Sunday