We are in for a very nice stretch of weather for the next 48 hours with clear skies and temperatures seasonably mild overall besides a chilly night tonight!!
Tonight with high pressure in control and clear skies and light winds lows will dip below average with upper 30s over NE PA to mid to upper 40s along the coast.
Saturday will be noting short of perfect as high pressure shifts off the coast and winds change more WSW temperatures will quickly rise with highs in the 70s for all, besides the immediate coast where upper 60s are possible, other wise tough the rest of the area will range from the mid to upper 70s, maybe someone touches 80 in the Philadelphia metropolitan and in SW NJ and SE PA. This is above normal for this time of year as average highs range from the mid 60s to low 70s, clear skies remain tomorrow night with lows pretty comfortable ad above normal in the low 50s interior to upper 50s along the coast
Sunday will be similar temperature wise but the theme will be increasing clouds as our next storm system starts to move in from the south, which could set the stage for a VERY wet week
The cold front and low forming over Texas will work together to bring us our next significant rainfall event.
There will be a storm next week no doubt, whats in question is the duration of the storm and that will obviously make a big difference in rainfall amounts
We have the European and Canadian models saying yea there’s a storm that comes up the coast but its pretty fast-moving and only lasts a day or so, still a significant rainfall but not as significant as the GFS and NAM models, the Euro and CMC give anywhere from 1-2 inches
Then you have the GFS and NAM models which say this storm CRAWLS up the coast, it rains from Monday to Thursday and the area gets 3-5 inches of rainfall, this is the solution im leaning towards as the pattern is blocked up and so far this spring the trend as been a very low moving pattern
What we have here is not necessarily your classic -NAO block in the northern Atlantic , but a HUGE ridge over the whole Atlantic which is slowing down the pattern, it acts like a negative NAO and does pretty much the same thing. This ridge will slow down the cold front mentioned above , similar to what we just had the last few days and that will lead to the storm over Texas and other disturbances riding along it from SW TO NE . It will depend exactly where the front decides to stall out to see how many disturbances may impact us, and that will depend on the Atlantic ridge. Like I said before im leaning towards the slower solution
With all that said the storm system will finally begin to move in Monday with rain filling into the area , most likely in the afternoon, with possible thunderstorms ahead of the mess. You can see the cold front over PA and the storm over currently Texas moving north right into our area.
Monday night into Tuesday the front continues to slowly move east with the axis of heavy rain also shifting east after this is when uncertainty starts showing up
Some models say the cold front just exits east with no problem and but others say the front stalls over the coastal plain leading to rain for days, again the solution im leaning towards
Tuesday night rain continues over the area and another disturbance is riding the front north bound, just want to add though, that while it looks rainy, temperatures will still be rather warm and around average.
Going into Wednesday not much has changed as the front is stalled pretty much so periods of rain and showers continue to train along the coast and same thing goes for Thursday before the front finally moves east and with that so does the rain
There is potential for SEVERAL inches of rain next week for the forecast area, that’s if the slower solution works out , if we just get the first storm and that’s it than anywhere from .50-2 inches can be expected so there’s a lot of uncertainty right now and you can count on me to keep you updated