Today I shift my focus from the Northeast and Mid Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm Debby was born yesterday, she is slowly getting stronger and will have major impact somewhere along the Gulf coast
Theres a lot of confusion as to where she will track .. a lot of models bring it west to Texas and a lot move it NE through Florida and potentially the Southeastern US .
The confusion is , does Debby get caught under the ridge and area of high pressure over the Plains or does the trough coming down the east coast catch it and steer it northeast?
Latest National Hurricane Center Thoughts
Below are my current thoughts on the track… I believe based on latest satellite imagery that the trough coming down the east coast will catch it and the storm will move North and then Northeast and im going against the NHC .
Areas in red are where I expect high impact and best chance of getting landfall.. basically between New Orleans and Western Florida. These areas can expect very heavy rain fall, coastal flooding, big waves and strong winds if my track pans out. I expect at landfall she will be a strong tropical storm or a minimal hurricane, the main issue is she will be a slow mover so flooding is the main concern.
I believe From SE Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida is where I expect the highest impact at this time but its a big storm so its effects will extend far out from the center
The yellow areas are moderate impact where heavy rain is possible and some gusty winds