Tropical storm Debby is still meandering in the Gulf of Mexico, not looking so good this morning as she is under a lot of sheer but none the less did its damage on Florida dumping copious amounts of rain, spawning tornadoes and serious flooding throughout the state
The latest update shows Debby has weakened some, from 60 mph Tropical storm to a 55 mph tropical storm, doesn’t surprise me as she isn’t looking good at all with WSW shear and dry air wrapping into the center. And she is moving NE as the trough I was talking about yesterday is steering it NE along with an area of high pressure over the Bahamas , so this is mainly a Florida event now.
UPDATED AND FINAL TRACK
Now, the trough looks to miss Debby, it just kinda steered her into more of a NE direction, so she looks to just move very slowly NE , not to mention the SW shear forced all of the rain and convection to the NE side of the storm, so therefore the center of circulation shifted NE yesterday towards the most convection, and that helped Debby miss the ridge that would have forced it west into Texas. So as forecast by NJ Weather Authority , the storm will not hit Texas or Louisiana, but instead remain a threat to Florida
It looks like the center will slowly trek across Florida over the next few days. But as stated above, with the SW shear, most of the storms rain and storms are on the NE Side, which is now east of Florida so the worst is over rainfall wise although there still are showers and storms , some severe across the state and will the case through at least Wednesday. It looks like whats left of Debby will reemerge in the Atlantic by this weekend but should go out to sea from there. Along Florida west coast winds will be WSW and lead to storm surge and coastal flooding onslaught until the center moves onto land.
It will track a bit further South east of my first call track but not by much and its better than the NHC call of a Texas landfall yesterday, I had a landfall in the Panhandle of Florida so its going to track SE of there more into and through Northern Florida
So basically if you’re in Florida or going there for vacation , you can expect windy conditions, tropical storm force at times with showers and thunderstorms, some will be severe which will add onto the flooding problems you have already from 10+ inches of rain and lots of coastal flooding over the next few days
National Hurricane Center Latest Thoughts