We have yet another cool summer day that’s is well below normal , it wont last very long as we head into more of a steady hot summery pattern starting by Thursday.
Tonight lows will range from the upper 40s over NE PA to mid to upper 50s along the coast
Wednesday will be less windy and a bit warmer than today but with continued low humidity and sunny skies, highs in the mid 70s NE PA to upper 70s to mid 80s elsewhere, which is slightly below normal
Looking at the satellite we see a trough over the NE which is responsible for the cool and windy weather over we had the past 72 hours and will continue the next 48 hours.
However, that ridge will come east, expand in coverage and strengthen ( becoming a heat ridge) and begin to influence our weather Thursday and last through the weekend and looks to basically stall over the Mississippi River Valley as we have a strong negative NAO block that will slow down the pattern
Below I drew the overall pattern I expect Thursday through the forseeable future. A dominant heat ridge will set up over the Mississippi , due to the coldest stratospheric conditions being over that area, which will lead to heat for much of the country , the bulk of the heat will remain to te S AND W of our forecast area as we will be on the NE edge of the ridge and on the edge of a trough over the northern Mid Atlantic, leading to a NW flow over the NE US. We will also have occasional cold fronts dropping south on the NE side of the ridge which will help keep the excessive heat away but we will still be impacted by heat from the ridge.
The NW flow will lead to downsloping situations where temperatures will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s, one example will be Thursday through Sunday where the ridge will come east and some of its heat comes riding from NW TO SE across the area then we will have these weak cold fronts that will drop south every few days leading to chances of showers and storms, and temperatures below average for a few days , then another warm up wash rinse and repeat
At times the ridge may relocate far enough east to really crank up the heat but overall what I expect is a seasonably warm pattern with temperatures at to above normal but nothing too excessive with an occasional cool down and chance of storms
Thursday through Sunday I expect overall sunny skies with hot temperatures, some humidity but nothing too oppressive with highs in ranging from the mid 80s interior to mid 90s in the Philadelphia metro and upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere , then a cold front will drop south Sunday into Monday leading to a cool down back to near average with a chance of showers and storms early next week.
Below is Thursday and ridging is expanding across much of the country and moving into our are
By Saturday ridging is in complete control but again the heart of the heat is to our WSW due to place ment of the center ridging
^ Early next week (above) the now powerful ridge sets shop in the middle of the country, where the heart of the heat will be while weak cold fronts and NW flow keep the excessive heat at bay
And looking long-range into later next week the same overall pattern continues, center ridging in the middle of the country, the NE is under and NW flow with occasional cold fronts and weak troughs along with some warm ups and hot spells, this is what I expect through July with overall averaging out to near normal conditions.
Overall Pattern I Expect Going Into July: