Today I take a shot at forecasting what the weather will be like for much of the US this July, as we go into the peak of summer, people start going on vacation and want to know what it’s going to be like!!
So here is the general pattern and set up I expect through this July :
We are going to have a trough over the gulf of Alaska and a strong negative NAO pattern over the North Atlantic leading to a trough and the balance between the 2 is a large ridge over much of the US and I expect it to linger around through July as the negative NAO isn’t going anywhere so it will slow down the pattern.
The ridge will stall and intensify over the Mississippi River Valley (due to cold stratosphere over that area) leading to expanding heat from the Dessert SW through the Rockies then north to the northern Plains and east all the way to the east coast.
Now sometimes this heat ridge will wiggle around and move west to east and that will change our weather effects.
When it shifts west to the Rockies, which would be caused by a strong cold front dropping south from Canada which would be caused bu the negative NAO and negative AO combination. This will result in cool downs to near normal to possibly below normal at times
Now if the ridge shifts east towards the SE US well watch out east coast!! This means some real bad heat waves, I would expect this not to happen too often but if it does we can expect brutal heat and possibly widespread 100s
I dont expect the ridge to move around much , atmospheric conditions say th center of the ridge stays over the Mississippi river Valley but it will shift around at times.
The center of the country will BAKE under the strongest influence of the heat ridge, from the Mississippi River Vally to the southern Plains and the hottest conditions will range from the Desert SW to the Rockies to the SE US and the hottest of the hot over the Mississippi Valley and the southern and northern Plains with intense heat waves IF NOT one big heat wave through the whole month (which would mean 90+ every single day!!!! Frequently temperatures will exceed 100 and maybe even 110 at times. Drought will continue and get worse leading to more threats of wild fires like what happened in Colorado the last week or s
If you look at the left image, that’s the pattern I expect this July with the center of the ridge over the center of the country and major heat from te Mississippi River Valley and the forecast area in a dominant W TO NW flow with average to above average temperatures overall, some cool downs. I expect many days in the 90s but with occasional cool downs to near normal to below normal for a couple of days here and there. I expect precipitation to be below normal and im concerned we return to drought conditions with all the heat and mainly dry conditions.
If yo like heat and live with in the United States your going to like this July!!