After what was a quiet and fairly comfortable week (compared to last week anyway), we have a stormy weekend to deal with along with the return of heat and humidity. Highs both today and tomorrow will be in the mid 80s to round 90 in some spots, (temperatures are actually being held down by clouds! ) , with dew points n the upper 6os to mid 70s , leading to very umid and uncomfortable conditions with heat indexes in the lower to mid 90s
We have a pretty interesting set up for this weekend , which will lead to a unsettled and wet weekend for many, with the best chance of rain and storms being on Saturday night into Sunday for the forecast area
What we have is a developing Bermuda high , which is a ridge centered in the western atlantic, leading to a strong and defined Southwest flow up the east coast. This flow is bringing abundant moisture up the coast. Then we also have a stationary front over the Southeast US which will turn into a warm front and slowly come Northeast Saturday into Sunday.
We can see the clear transport of moisture beginning with showers moving into the area today, focused over Southern NJ for now as they are closer to the front , this will all SLOWLY shift north today through tonight
I expect the most unsettled time period to be late tonight and through the day tomorrow as the warm front lifts slowly through the area
All this moisture will lead to a lot of cloud cover, which is why I do not expect widespread severe thunderstorms, but as the front moves north and through the area, it will lead to enhanced lifting of this moisture which will trigger widespread showers and storms, , mostly tomorrow night and Sunday. I can’t rule out some strong storms ad maybe a VERY ISOLOTED severe storm due to sufficient wind shear and a lot of heat and humidity but the main threat is heavy rainfall
The thing we are concerned about is, for one the front is slow-moving and number 2 is that wind shear and winds aloft will be very weak, this leads to a set up of storms which will be very slow-moving, so flash flooding may very well become a concern. Add in all the humidity, dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s ( temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, heat indexes in the upper 90s will make it uncomfortable) along with PWATS reaching 2 inches and you have a potential for very heavy rainfall.
Very heavy rainfall and slow-moving storms, not a good combination so stay tuned for any warnings tha ay be issued for your area. There s potential for those who get stuck under storms to get a quick couple of inches of rainfall, we don’t expect that potential to be widespread but the chance is certainly there.
Above is later tonight and into tomorrow morning, widespread showers and storms start to move in from the Southwest ahead and along the warm front
The showers and storms last through most of the day tomorrow and then I expect drying and clearing conditions tomorrow night as the warm front moves north of us. This will lead to yet another heat wave next week.